Severe Thunderstorm Warning 380, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.UPDATE...

TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MO/SE KS. RUC STILL INDICATES MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CNTRL MO..BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS WEAKER
IN THIS AREA AND OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 45 MINUTES.

BETTER INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3500 MLCAPE...WEAK OR NON-
EXISTENT CAP...AND 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR EXISTS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MO AND SE KS. UPDRAFTS HAVE INCREASED IN THIS AREA AIDED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA TO MONITOR
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE COMPLEX CURRENTLY AROUND KANSAS
CITY...BUT ALSO NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE STARTED THE
FORECAST WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND THEN BROUGHT IN TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX. THEREAFTER WILL CARRY SOME
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING WELL BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY CHAOTIC WITHIN PRECIPITATION AREA
BUT EXPECTED MAINLY A SOUTHEAST FLOW UNTIL MAIN FRONT PUSHES IN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
540 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 70
  MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BATTLEFIELD TO ROLLA
 THROUGH 8 PM.

DISCUSSION:

  A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
  AHEAD OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR
  STRENGTH OR INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE TOWARD THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
  SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
 LINE FROM BATTLEFIELD TO ROLLA THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             2 S SPRINGFIELD         37.17N 93.29W
06/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            *** 1 INJ *** QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT BATTLEFIELD AND
            GOLDEN. ONE INJURY REPORTED AS CITIZEN WAS INJURED WHILE
            MOVING CAR DUE TO THE HAIL.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GROVESPRING             37.40N 92.61W
06/15/2008                   WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIMBS DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY AT M AND HIGHWAY 5

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
537 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             OZARK                   37.02N 93.21W
06/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL ALSO REPORTED AT FREEMONT HILLS

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             OZARK                   37.02N 93.21W
06/15/2008  E2.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GROVESPRING             37.40N 92.61W
06/15/2008                   WRIGHT             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON PARKS CREEK ROAD

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOODHOPE                36.91N  92.81W
06/15/2008                   DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE GOODHOPE AREA ON HWY O. POWER
            OUT. U HWY EAST OF TOWN TREE LIMBS ALSO DOWN.

&&

DSA