Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 291758
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

MOC065-203-291808-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-080129T1845Z/
SHANNON MO-DENT MO-
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SHANNON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3725 9155 3737 9163 3755 9134 3754 9131
      3751 9131 3751 9124 3750 9121 3742 9122
      3742 9118 3732 9118
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 237DEG 57KT 3750 9122

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WAS SURGING INTO THE OZARKS AT LATE MORNING. SHARP
TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE 20S WERE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSGE.
A DRY LINE WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM
EAST OF OSAGE BEACH TO EAST OF BRANSON AT 17Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAD FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THIS FEATURE WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAINED IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS DRY
LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS. IT APPEARS THE
AREAS EAST OF A SALEM TO GAINESVILLE LINE WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY
BRIEF WINDOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THE TORNADO RISK IS SMALL IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AN AXIS OF STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING
WAS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST AND
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
ONLY MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CTIVE WEEK WEATHER WISE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH TO
DISCUSS. STRATUS DECK MOVED IN DURING THE EVENING AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME SO FAR. AS A RESULT HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. COLD FRONT WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HAVING DROPPED SOME 50+ DEGREES YESTERDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER WESTERN SD. FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN CWA BY
11-12Z...SGF BY 15Z AND UNO BY 18Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PLUMMETING READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.

BY 12Z...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA (150 KTS) ALONG WITH 40-50KT 850 JET OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL CAP PRESENT OVER THE AREA FROM
00Z SGF SOUNDING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF FROPA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 600 TO 1000 J/KG COULD BE
REALIZED. SPC HAS EASTERN CWA IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AND CERTAINLY
CANT ARGUE WITH THAT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. WILL BE
MENTIONING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN GRIDS AND WILL
LIKELY MENTION ISOLATED TORNADO WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AFFECTING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT WOULD EXPECT
ONLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION. MAIN STORY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AND THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS LIKELY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP TO
BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S WEST.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN OUTLIER TODAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND IS THE QUICKEST OF THE MODELS. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE STARTED
SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN IN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WHICH WOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE
PAINTED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 2 INCHES ACROSS MY NORTHWEST CWA TO 5
INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM 12Z THU THROUGH 18Z FRI.
THIS OF COURSE WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW COVER.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
LESS THAN PAR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY.  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS INDUCED STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.  MEANWHILE...A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST EXISTS AT AROUND 2000
FEET...CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE A DROP IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE ALONG WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI SUGGESTS THAT
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR
SO...JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  CEILINGS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH JOPLIN AT AROUND 1630Z...AND THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AT AROUND
1700Z.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...OR POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW AFTER THE FRONT.  ELECTED NOT TO
INSERT ANY PRECIP MENTION INTO THE TAFS DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
THIS OCCURRING.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1048 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND POSSIBLY
 ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
 CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NOON THROUGH 4 PM EAST OF A
 BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE.

 DISCUSSION:

 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
 ACROSS THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
 DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EAST OF SPRINGFIELD
 ALONG A DRY LINE PROCEEDING THE COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
 SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THE WEST PLAINS EASTWARD INTO
 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
 TRANSITION TO A SQUALL LINE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND
 SHEAR WILL BE PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
 WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
 IF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON
 SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
 LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
 THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE
 WEST COAST OF CANADA...THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
 FROM ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
 ADJUSTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO SALEM LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER