Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
937 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE IDEA OF CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE SEVERE CONVECTION
THAT PREVIOUSLY FIRED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EXPLODED ONCE IT OVERTOOK THAT BOUNDARY. ONE OF THE FEW
CHANCES WE HAD FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN REALIZED IN THE FORM OF AN MCS.

THIS MCS QUICKLY MATURED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA TO JUST NORTH
OF ENID OKLAHOMA. NEIGHBORING RADAR DATA INDICATES A FAIRLY
DEFINED BOWING STRUCTURE WITH A REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS ALSO A
STRONG MARC SIGNATURE PRESENT WITH THIS BOWING LINE FROM COWLEY
COUNTY KANSAS INTO KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA. NO SURPRISE THAT SEVERAL
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE 0 TO 2 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SHEAR
AND COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE. THIS
INTERACTION AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS POINT TO MORE OF A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS. EVEN THOUGH A CAP REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS
MCS...FEEL IT WILL AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MISSOURI ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING NATURE TO THIS MCS...VERY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A STRONG CONCERN. LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SHEAR PRESENT. QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG
THE LINE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST
AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE FORTHCOMING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WAS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS IN TODAYS FORECAST ANALYSIS.  TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
THE 18Z KSGF RAOB MEASURED A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY WAS CAPPED BY VERY WARM AIR
WITHIN THE 850 - 700 MB LAYER.  MIXED LAYER CIN WAS MEASURED AT -196
J/KG...DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPPER 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY AT 1945Z) IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE A 850 TO 700 MB TROUGH FOLDS OVER THE WARM SECTOR IN
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION BY 00-03Z TONIGHT.  THIS TROUGH CAN BE
VIEWED ON THE WRF 310 AND 315 DEGREE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACES
FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  40-50 KNOTS OF
PARCEL MOVEMENT RIDES UP THIS ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP AIDING IN
CONVECTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ML CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-8 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40
KNOTS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO INITIATION.  SEVERAL INDICES POINT TOWARD
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  WILL ALSO
UPGRADE HAIL SIZE WITHIN THE HWO TO GOLF BALLS...WHILE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL FOLLOW THE 18Z WRF CLOSELY IN ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT WHICH
AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING THESE STORMS.  THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINES UP ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM PITTSBURG
KANSAS TO SALEM MISSOURI.  ANYONE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEDNESDAY -
MONDAY PERIOD.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT REGARDS THE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER A HIGHLY CHARGED AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE A DECENT EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
MATERIALIZE.  THERE IS A DECENT QPF SIGNAL THAT OVERNIGHT RESIDUAL
STORMS WOULD SHIFT EAST INTO MISSOURI...POSSIBLY HOLDING UP INTO
FRIDAYS PERIOD.  ITS DEFINITELY A SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE...BUT
FOR NOW I KEPT THE POP FORECAST CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WITH 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EXPERIENCE
LITTLE CHANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS PARKED OUT WEST WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.  SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CAUSE DAILY PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS.  MOST OF
THIS ENERGY WOULD RIDE THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MAKE INTO
THE JOPLIN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
  WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...
  ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF KANSAS WILL IMPACT AREAS WEST HIGHWAY
  65...WHILE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS REGION THROUGH 2 AM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
  REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 AM.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
  EAST IN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH...AND HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS AS LOW LEVEL WIND
  SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
  NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
  TRUMAN LAKE...AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION LATE THIS EVENING
  AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
  INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
  UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

MOZ055-056-040415-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORGAN AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1017 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OTTERVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMITHTON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF
LINCOLN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SEDALIA TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEDALIA TO 9 MILES EAST OF WINDSOR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COLE CAMP BY 1030 PM CDT.
  STOVER BY 1045 PM CDT.
  VERSAILLES BY 1055 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FLORENCE...SYRACUSE...CROCKERVILLE...GRAVOIS MILLS...
BARNETT AND ROCKY MOUNT ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ097-101-040400-
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-
1024 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1021 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 34 MILES WEST OF ST.
PAUL TO 34 MILES WEST OF OSWEGO TO 40 MILES WEST OF CHETOPA...MOVING
EAST AT 64 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
COLUMBUS...PITTSBURG...MCCUNE...AND WEST MINERAL...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BARJENBRUCH