Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 040735
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

MOC015-029-131-041200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080604T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-
233 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
CAMDEN...MILLER AND SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 229 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAD ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED 
THAT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN FROM EARLIER STORMS. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF 
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

LAT...LON 3841 9240 3834 9240 3833 9219 3802 9218
      3802 9240 3788 9242 3790 9307 3806 9307
      3808 9345 3823 9341 3822 9311 3826 9302
      3818 9301 3823 9296 3819 9296 3819 9277
      3822 9270 3834 9270 3835 9264 3844 9261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 180DEG 0KT 3819 9277

$$

FOSTER

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 040954
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

MOC015-029-131-041004-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080604T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-
454 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CAMDEN...MILLER AND
SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTIES...

THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1100 
AM...DUE TO ONGOING FLOODING.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3841 9240 3834 9240 3833 9219 3802 9218
      3802 9240 3788 9242 3790 9307 3806 9307
      3808 9345 3823 9341 3822 9311 3826 9302
      3818 9301 3823 9296 3819 9296 3819 9277
      3822 9270 3834 9270 3835 9264 3844 9261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 180DEG 0KT 3819 9277

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
937 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE IDEA OF CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE SEVERE CONVECTION
THAT PREVIOUSLY FIRED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EXPLODED ONCE IT OVERTOOK THAT BOUNDARY. ONE OF THE FEW
CHANCES WE HAD FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN REALIZED IN THE FORM OF AN MCS.

THIS MCS QUICKLY MATURED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA TO JUST NORTH
OF ENID OKLAHOMA. NEIGHBORING RADAR DATA INDICATES A FAIRLY
DEFINED BOWING STRUCTURE WITH A REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS ALSO A
STRONG MARC SIGNATURE PRESENT WITH THIS BOWING LINE FROM COWLEY
COUNTY KANSAS INTO KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA. NO SURPRISE THAT SEVERAL
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE 0 TO 2 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SHEAR
AND COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE. THIS
INTERACTION AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS POINT TO MORE OF A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS. EVEN THOUGH A CAP REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS
MCS...FEEL IT WILL AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MISSOURI ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING NATURE TO THIS MCS...VERY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A STRONG CONCERN. LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SHEAR PRESENT. QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG
THE LINE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST
AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE FORTHCOMING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WAS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS IN TODAYS FORECAST ANALYSIS.  TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
THE 18Z KSGF RAOB MEASURED A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY WAS CAPPED BY VERY WARM AIR
WITHIN THE 850 - 700 MB LAYER.  MIXED LAYER CIN WAS MEASURED AT -196
J/KG...DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPPER 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY AT 1945Z) IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE A 850 TO 700 MB TROUGH FOLDS OVER THE WARM SECTOR IN
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION BY 00-03Z TONIGHT.  THIS TROUGH CAN BE
VIEWED ON THE WRF 310 AND 315 DEGREE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACES
FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  40-50 KNOTS OF
PARCEL MOVEMENT RIDES UP THIS ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP AIDING IN
CONVECTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ML CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-8 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40
KNOTS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO INITIATION.  SEVERAL INDICES POINT TOWARD
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  WILL ALSO
UPGRADE HAIL SIZE WITHIN THE HWO TO GOLF BALLS...WHILE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL FOLLOW THE 18Z WRF CLOSELY IN ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT WHICH
AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING THESE STORMS.  THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINES UP ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM PITTSBURG
KANSAS TO SALEM MISSOURI.  ANYONE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEDNESDAY -
MONDAY PERIOD.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT REGARDS THE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER A HIGHLY CHARGED AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE A DECENT EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
MATERIALIZE.  THERE IS A DECENT QPF SIGNAL THAT OVERNIGHT RESIDUAL
STORMS WOULD SHIFT EAST INTO MISSOURI...POSSIBLY HOLDING UP INTO
FRIDAYS PERIOD.  ITS DEFINITELY A SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE...BUT
FOR NOW I KEPT THE POP FORECAST CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WITH 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EXPERIENCE
LITTLE CHANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS PARKED OUT WEST WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.  SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CAUSE DAILY PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS.  MOST OF
THIS ENERGY WOULD RIDE THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MAKE INTO
THE JOPLIN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
  WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...
  ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF KANSAS WILL IMPACT AREAS WEST HIGHWAY
  65...WHILE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS REGION THROUGH 2 AM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
  REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 AM.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
  EAST IN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH...AND HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS AS LOW LEVEL WIND
  SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
  NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
  TRUMAN LAKE...AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION LATE THIS EVENING
  AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
  INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
  UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
06/04/2008  E40 MPH          GREENE             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROACH                   37.99N 92.84W
06/04/2008                   CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES DOWNED AT AA HIGHWAY AND BIG ISLAND ROAD

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLARD                 37.31N 93.43W
06/04/2008                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIMBS DOWN IN THE WILLARD AREA.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1249 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEATLAND               37.95N 93.40W
06/04/2008                   HICKORY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN WHEATLAND

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HERMITAGE               37.94N 93.32W
06/04/2008                   HICKORY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO POWER POLES LEANING AT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE NEAR HIGWAY
            54 IN HERMITAGE.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GERSTER                 37.95N 93.58W
06/04/2008                   ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALONG T HIGHWAY

&&

ANGLE