Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.UPDATE...

STORMS OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES TO HOUR...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT STORM OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY KANSAS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD VERNON COUNTY SHOWING STRONG ROTATION IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE STORM AS WELL AS SOME BOWING ON THE LEADING EDGE.
ALSO EXPECT AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER VERNON/CEDAR/ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA.

TERRY
&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...
WITH IS STARTING TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS...
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. THIS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO MAKE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. BY
THIS AFTERNOON THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD BECOME CAPPED ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA.

THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THE STRONG CAP THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION THOUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOMORROW EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.
SEVERE WEATHER WE BE POSSIBLE AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WE BE OVER THE AREA...WITH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 50
TO 60 KTS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
QUESTION FOR THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS IF THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED OR IF THEY REMAIN ELEVATED. IF THEY CAN GET
SURFACE BASED AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH HEAD WAY SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. THEREFORE...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THINK THE AREA WILL
REMAIN TOO CAPPED TO GET ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE PULLED POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND ON THE MESOSCALE FEATURES TO BETTER DISCERN
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED AS THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP FAVORS SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN KANSAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
LAY OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY FIRE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER
TODAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS LOW LEVEL JET ACCELERATES TO 40-50 KNOTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
 LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO BOLIVAR THROUGH THIS
 EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
 RAIN COOLED AIR FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
 WILL LIKELY FOCUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
 THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...AND HIGH
 MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE
 FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH
 FLOODING...AND LARGE HAIL.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
 OZARKS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WARNINGS...AND
 STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
 EVENING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
 ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WILL BE LARGE
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
 FLASH FLOODING.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
 AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>