Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...
WITH IS STARTING TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS...
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. THIS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO MAKE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. BY
THIS AFTERNOON THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD BECOME CAPPED ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA.

THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THE STRONG CAP THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION THOUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOMORROW EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.
SEVERE WEATHER WE BE POSSIBLE AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WE BE OVER THE AREA...WITH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 50
TO 60 KTS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
QUESTION FOR THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS IF THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED OR IF THEY REMAIN ELEVATED. IF THEY CAN GET
SURFACE BASED AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH HEAD WAY SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. THEREFORE...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THINK THE AREA WILL
REMAIN TOO CAPPED TO GET ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE PULLED POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND ON THE MESOSCALE FEATURES TO BETTER DISCERN
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED AS THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP FAVORS SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...AND ALONG WITH IT SO WILL THE TSRA ACTIVITY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SPACED ENOUGH TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF TSRA IN
EITHER AERODROMES...AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
BEEN INCLUDED AT JLN AND SGF.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-078-088-
     089-093-094-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031415-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
908 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 70 MPH...FLASH FLOODING...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
 SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
 THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
 INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
 PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
 TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...AND LARGE HAIL.

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
 KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OUTLOOK AREA
 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME
 DANGEROUS...AND HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
 BALLS.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
 SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WARNINGS...AND
 STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
 EVENING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
 ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WILL BE LARGE
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
 BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH
 FLOODING.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
 AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E EAGLE ROCK          36.55N  93.68W
06/02/2008                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS 4 TO 6 INCH LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     HAIL             5 W METZ                38.00N  94.53W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH