Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED FROM THE FT
SCOTT/NEVADA AREA TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA. 925/850MB WINDS INDICATE A BROAD AXIS OF 20-30KT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INTENSIFY A BIT
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOURCE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
DEFINITELY MOISTURE RICH. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
FOR A TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD EVENT. AS A RESULT...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE CWA
OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MO.

SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE KS/OK/MO TRI STATE AREA. MLCAPE
REMAINS IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE HERE...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.75 INCHES. WITH INCREASING SBCIN AND MLCIN...THESE STORMS
WILL BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT THE TORNADO THREAT IS
DWINDLING...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC HELICITY (GREATER THAN 150 M2/S2)
RESIDES.

WEST TO EAST AXIS OF RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SLOWLY VEERS WITH TIME. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE THE EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AREAS MOST PRONE TO
FLOODING WILL BE BOURBON/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN KS AS WELL AS VERNON
AND BARTON IN MO. THIS RISK WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MCS REMNANTS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY WITH READINGS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AT SGF WHICH HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE CLOUD SHIELD AND RAINFALL TO THE LOWER 80S OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI. SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI
HAVE STARTED TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOT
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS A RESULT...STORMS HAVE
INTENSIFIED OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND A FEW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCAL POINT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER AND OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS TONIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK
TOWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY MOVES OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WEST TO EAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES WILL SINK INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE OF TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITHING TSRA...MVFR CIG...POSSIBLY IFR VIS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT BY DAYBREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-070-071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
  AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 MISSOURI...OR MAINLY NORTH OF A STOCKTON TO HOUSTON LINE THIS
 EVENING.

 ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...OR MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT SCOTT KANSAS
 HARTVILLE MISSOURI LINE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

 DISCUSSION:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
 CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THIS AREA AND
 THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
 OKLAHOMA...AND PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND
 SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A
 LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO HARTVILLE MISSOURI. LARGE
 HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
 WITH THESE STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
 BE RULED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS CLOSE TO A STALLED FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE AREA AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME  SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S FORT SCOTT          37.83N  94.71W
06/01/2008                   BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING AT 3RD AND CLARK STREET AS WELL AS NATIONAL
            AND MARGRAVE. WATER ROSE 18 INCHES IN JUST MINUTES.

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HAIL             MARSHFIELD              37.34N 92.91W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     LIGHTNING        SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
06/01/2008                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            POWER OUT ON REPUBLIC ROAD. MODERATE WINDS ALSO REPORTED.
            OUTAGE LIKELY DUE TO ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     HAIL             3 N ROGERSVILLE         37.16N  93.06W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

MOZ068-079-010645-
POLK MO-HICKORY MO-
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN POLK AND SOUTHERN HICKORY
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 1238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUMANSVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     HAIL             2 E FORDLAND            37.16N 92.90W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS