River Flood Warning 88, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS LOW
LEVEL JET HAS ADDED IN KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
MORNING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER OVERALL THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR WILL PUSH
SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY THAT
IS THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH BACK INTO THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL SEE STRONGER WIND SHEAR MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MCS THAT MOVES INTO THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFFECTS REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THIS TIME...WITH
GULF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE AND EXACT TIMING AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES TO BETTER DISCERN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
BOTH AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING FOR THE TIME BEING.  SHOULD SEE THE
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BOTH AERODROMES BY LATE MORNING AS
HEATING BEGINS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TIMING ON CONVECTION TOUGH TO
PINPOINT...SO KEPT VCTS IN TAFS.  YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE IN FROM KANSAS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITHIN TSRA...MVFR CIG...POSSIBLY IFR VIS ARE EXPECTED.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-070-071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
 DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
 AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
 HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
 SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
 FEW OF THE STRONGER STORM BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
 MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY
 HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
 MORNING. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWED A
 WEAKENING TREND...HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME
 MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS MORNING.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
 KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
 SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS THE
 EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE AN ISOLATED
 TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS
 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
 WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
 POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
 LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
 POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
 AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 THIS
 AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

MOZ094-095-102-103-010945-
LAWRENCE MO-STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-BARRY MO-
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN BARRY...SOUTHERN
LAWRENCE...STONE AND WESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 413 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARIONVILLE TO
AURORA TO VERONA TO MONETT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF AURORA TO AURORA TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AURORA TO
MONETT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CLEVER BY 420 AM CDT.
  CRANE BY 425 AM CDT.
  GALENA BY 440 AM CDT.
  REEDS SPRING AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST BRANSON BY 445 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF MADRY...WHEELERVILLE...MCDOWELL...HURLEY...ELSEY...
JENKINS...PONCE DE LEON AND CAPE FAIR ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

GAGAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     FLOOD            3 SE NEVADA             37.81N 94.32W
06/01/2008                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY BB AND STOCKADE ROAD UNDER 2.5
            FEET OF WATER

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     FLOOD            2 SE BRONAUGH           37.67N 94.44W
06/01/2008                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTION OF CR 1175 AND YOUNGER UNDER WATER AND
            CLOSED

&&

GCLAYCOM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

MOZ103-104-011145-
STONE MO-TANEY MO-
610 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN STONE AND SOUTHWESTERN
TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 605 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN STONE
AND SOUTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF BLUE EYE AND
RIDGEDALE.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             ROUND SPRING            37.28N 91.41W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

GAGAN