River Flood Warning 126, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
208 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH IKE AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IKE IS
LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LOW WITH
THE GREATEST RISES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...AS IKE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW AND ACROSS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM JOPLIN TO
COLUMBIA MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW
LOCATED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

IKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT A
FAIRLY GOOD RATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE FRONT
AND IKE SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY...ENDING FROM WEST BY MID
MORNING AND EAST BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS AREAS
ALONG THE FRONT AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THIS WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WHERE FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY NOON TODAY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE TWO PLUS INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IKE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TOWARDS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 925MB
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THROUGH MID MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY TO
1 PM TODAY. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

AFTER THE REMNANTS OF IKE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA....SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALLS
THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS GROUNDS REMAIN MOIST AND TEMPERATURES
COOL.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...REMNANTS OF IKE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY THROUGH
SUNRISE.  AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES...WILL SEE WINDS REALLY
INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. IKES LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ057-058-069>071-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
215 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FLASH FLOODING...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND WIND GUSTS UP 50 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO SEVEN
  INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FLOODING OF SMALL
  STREAMS...CREEKS...AND SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED. THE
  MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON SUNDAY.

  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AS WIND
  SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM IKE.
  LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO
  GAINESVILLE WILL EXPERIENCE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES.

  FINALLY...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM IKE TRACKS
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM
  TO GAINESVILLE AFTER 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BATTLEFIELD             37.12N 93.37W
09/14/2008  M3.50 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N  93.29W
09/14/2008                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED AT FARM ROAD 146 AND QUAIL ST DUE TO WATER
            FLOWING OVER ROAD

&&

ANGLE