River Flood Warning 124, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...AND
ALSO TAKEN THE MAIN IMPACTS OF IKE OUT OF HERE A BIT QUICKER ON
SUNDAY. ONE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL
BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. PLEASE REFER TO THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...IKE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE TRACK UP TO THIS POINT
HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MODELS ARE ALL VERY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE REMNANTS OF IKE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
REMNANTS WILL THEN QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTED PATH AND TIMING OF IKE AND THAT
SURFACE FRONT...THE EXPECTED AREA OF HIGHEST QPF HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A BIT FARTHER WEST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR WIDESPREAD 4 TO
6 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM MID EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY
ACTUALLY BE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE CROSS THE RED RIVER. WINDS WILL THEN
EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SUITE OF
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATES 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND AROUND THE 925
MB LEVEL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS FOR 45 TO 50 MPH
GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE
AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE REMNANTS OF IKE GET OUT
OF HERE...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY NUDGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT
FOG FOR A NIGHT OR TWO AFTER THESE HEAVY RAINS. TEMPERATURES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL SLOWLY WARM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 144 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008/

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING ENVIRONMENTAL AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  INTERMITTENT CLOUD
BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...WHILE BACKED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

FROM THE 18Z SPECIAL KSGF RAOB...213 J/KG OF 0-3KM CAPE EXISTED
WHILE OVERALL SURFACE BASED CAPE HAD EXCEEDED 1000 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD TREND STRONGER AS SURFACE WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.  WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF IKE
APPROACHING...SPEED SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGLY SHEARED.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE REMANANTS
OF IKE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT LIFR VISIBILITIES
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS. TEMPO IFR TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING. STILL THINKING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANT LOW TRAVELS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ057-058-
     069>071-079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
715 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
715 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FLASH FLOODING...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND WIND GUSTS UP 45 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO SEVEN INCHES
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  FLOODING OF SMALL
  STREAMS...CREEKS...AND SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED.  THE
  MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON SUNDAY.

  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AS WIND
  SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM IKE.  LOCATIONS
  ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TABLE ROCK LAKE TO ROLLA WILL
  EXPERIENCE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES.

  FINALLY...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM IKE TRACKS ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E PITTSBURG           37.41N 94.65W
09/13/2008                   CRAWFORD           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TRIBUTARY OF COW CREEK WAS FLOODING A SECTION OF STATE
            LINE ROAD.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
09/13/2008                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MAIDEN LANE AND 7TH STREET WAS FLOODED. A SECTION OF
            NORTH MURPHY STREET NEAR ITS INTERSECTION WITH MAIN
            STREET WAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS. THIS
            SECTION OF NORTH MURPHY STREET IS A LOW WATER CROSSING
            THAT INTERSECTS TURKEY CREEK.

&&

DCRAMER

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