Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
TODAY...WITH FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH AND STALLED ROUGHLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO A
SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE FRONT HAS NOW BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD NOT SEE IT DROP TOO MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE COVERAGE BEGIN TO EXPAND ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BECAUSE OF THE VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THEN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 TODAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG
WIND SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI..

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. AS THE COLUMN COOLS...RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS THE AREA IS
LIKELY TO GET DRY SLOTTED. HAVE CUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS QUITE
A BIT...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION EXITS OFF TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE AREA...AS
MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE RETURNED. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A
RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK THROUGH THE UPPER 40S
AND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF BOTH
KSGF AND KJLN. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR
AND LIFR. HOWEVER...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
AERODROMES...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY UNTIL 00Z. AFTER
10Z...PRECIPITATION COULD TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW AT KJLN.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR BEFORE RAISING AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI UNTIL 8 PM
CST TUESDAY.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
113 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR PURDY TO NIXA TO
MARSHFIELD TO LECOMA.

  DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS.

COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             3 NE EBENEZER           37.37N  93.27W
02/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JSS