Flash Flood Warning 150, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
BE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TUESDAY...AND ALSO WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHORT LIVED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IS VERY SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 20S CWA WIDE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND THE
90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE WESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S. STILL FEEL THE GFS MOS VALUES ARE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO IT NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE
VERY MOIST AND GREEN GROUNDS. WITH THIS PACKAGE HAVE AGAIN
FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE LEAVING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE
PULSE IN NATURE. TODAY HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO WARSAW LINE. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO
SEE IF IT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE AREA TODAY. WITH ITS VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT HOLD TOGETHER THAT
LONG AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THEREFORE...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON THE CWA TODAY AS IT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IT
TO SEE IF IT DEVELOPS ANY KIND OF VORT MAX THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA WHICH COULD INITIATE CONVECTION. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...DUE TO THERE BEING NO APPARENT TRIGGERS TO
INITIATE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
WITH MOST LOCATION REMAINING DRY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH I LIKE DUE TO THE LAST
SEVERAL SYSTEMS EVOLVING SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING HOURS...THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT CU DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ISOLD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO WILL ONLY
MENTIONED CB IN THE SGF TAF AT THIS TIME. ANY TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
833 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071345-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
833 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 DISCUSSION:

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
 SOUTHEAST OF A JOPLIN TO WARSAW LINE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
 LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
 IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
 ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
 POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB