Flash Flood Warning 148, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 060401
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

MOC009-119-060900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0148.000000T0000Z-080706T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MCDONALD AND SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTIES...

AT 1050 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO 
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP. 

HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE HEADWATERS OF ROARING RIVER. RAPID 
AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY ON ROARING RIVER. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE 
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME 
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS...INCLUDING IN ROARING RIVER STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3665 9360 3649 9360 3649 9423 3666 9422

$$

FOSTER

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 060750 RRA
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

MOC009-119-060801-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0148.000000T0000Z-080706T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MCDONALD AND SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3665 9360 3649 9360 3649 9423 3666 9422

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

DESPITE MORE THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING GIVEN
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER IF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATE NORTH FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OZARKS OF
ARKANSAS.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION / STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING WAS THE INITIAL
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOONS ANALYSIS.  MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.  THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AROUND NEVADA TO BULL SHOALS LAKE.  A
WEAK MCV DIVING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL FOLLOW THE MAVS POPS RATHER CLOSELY
THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SLIGHTS GOING.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVES INTO LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
FLATTENING AS ZONAL FLOW EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WILL BE
ON AN UPSWING...THOUGH HAVE CUT HIGHS AGAIN ON MONDAY GIVEN WET
SOILS AND GREEN VEGETATION.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF SURFACE
FRONT DESCENDING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY THEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH MCS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INITIATE NORTH OF
MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW KEEPING FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY.

...LONG TERM (WED - SAT)...

MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH GFS/ECMWF PUSHING SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS AS GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SOLUTION THOUGH DIVERGES BY FRIDAY WITH ECMWF CONSERVING
ENERGY AND DIGGING A NEW NORTHWEST TROF...WHILE GFS BREAKS FLOW INTO
TWO WAVES. DESPITE THIS...BOTH MODELS SIMILAR IN TIMING OF LEE
TROFING AND ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. WITH A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK UNTIL FOCUS BECOMES EVIDENT. WHAT WILL BE NOTED WILL
BE CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS
HOLDING IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

RUNNELS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
806 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
806 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 DISCUSSION:

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE
 ARKANSAS BORDER. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
 RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY LATE
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER