Tornado Warning 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 090216
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

NCC171-193-197-090226-
/O.EXP.KRNK.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080509T0215Z/
YADKIN NC-WILKES NC-SURRY NC-
1016 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SURRY...SOUTHEASTERN WILKES
AND YADKIN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1015 PM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3627 8045 3620 8044 3603 8073 3604 8075
      3604 8085 3605 8086 3605 8097 3607 8099
      3628 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 239DEG 28KT 3608 8088

$$

PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSUE MOVES ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS KY IS FCST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY MOIST...PWATS FCST TO
PEAK BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 EARLY TONIGHT...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SUN WE
GET LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE CLOUD COVER PREVAILED INTO THE
EARLY AFTN...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME. AS TEMPS INCREASE
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY NEEDED TO FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. CAPES ARE FCST TO PEAK AT AROUND
1500 J/KG THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS ABUNDANT...SRH FCSTS NEAR 200
M2/S2 FOR THIS EVENING. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE FORMATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CELLS...SOME OF WHICH MAY HAVE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MAIN TIME
FRAME TO WATCH FOR SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE FROM 21 TO 06
UTC.

WITH THE HIGH PWATS...WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS BEGIN TO
TRAIN. ATTM...WIND FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
STORMS MOVING...BUT IT TRAINING DOES DEVELOP...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
STACK UP QUICKLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...WITH FOCUS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST.
A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES IS 170% OF NORMAL. FORTUNATELY FFG IS HIGH
NOW. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE FASTER GFS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW...SO TAPER OFF PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
WITH THE LOW PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE SOME CLEARING. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUICK SHOT OF SHWS ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM FRIDAYS LOW
PRESSURE AGREED UPON BY NAM/GFS/SREF SO INC POPS MAINLY IN THE
HIGH TERRITORY...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SURVIVE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHC OF STRONG STORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET STREAK TAKING AIM ON THE PIEDMONT...AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDGE WILL BE
REMAINING FOR PART OF THE DAY IN THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
POTENT LLVL SHEAR AS OCCLUSION/WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINS LEADING UP TO
THIS EVENT...WATER PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE GROUND SATURATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. SHRTWVS EJECTING FROM ALEUTIAN
LOW WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE MIDWEST...ONLY AMPLIFYING THE
EASTERN TROUGH FURTHER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STAGE IS SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BRIEFLY THIN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND
BUILDUPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 21 UTC WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ANTICIPATED
ERRATIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS IN THE VCNTY OF TSTMS.

FOR TONIGHT THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WIDEPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CIGS ANTICIPATED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON FRIDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
FINALLY... ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-WVZ042>045-091545-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
091545-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL TAKE RAINFALL
OF CLOSE TO THREE INCHES TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MINOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
855 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             SNOW CREEK              36.83N 79.75W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           VA   PUBLIC

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             DOBSON                  36.39N 80.72W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       SURRY              NC   PUBLIC

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
903 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             BLUE RIDGE              37.38N 79.82W
05/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       BOTETOURT          VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             MONTVALE                37.38N 79.73W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       BEDFORD            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW SNOW CREEK         36.81N 79.78W
05/08/2008                   FRANKLIN           VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HOUSE ON RT 618 AND 632 MUDDY FORK RD

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOBSON                  36.39N 80.72W
05/08/2008                   SURRY              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN IN CITY

&&

TW