Severe Thunderstorm Warning 427, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH AND THETA-E RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE REGION.
DOWN SLOPE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE IN THE EAST...HOWEVER...LEE TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
SOME BECOMING SEVERE. BEST FOCUS FOR EVENING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
TOWARDS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AS INSTABILITIES RELATIVELY HIGH AND
DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN THIS MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT...DRIER AIR AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE WILL
HAVE DIMINISHED ANY LINGER SHOWERS. FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON SUNDAY...THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWER THREAT LIMITED WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE
BUT WITH A TROUGH ALOFT...A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES.

BY MORNING...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY BEING NEAR 80 AND SOUTHSIDE SEEING LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ON
MONDAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE VERY LOW BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS GRAYSON AND
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS AS THETA-E RIDGE BUCKLES BACK TO THE NORTH
AND LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS IN THE PIEDMONT.

WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MID TO UPPER 80S VAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THETA-E BOUNDARY WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LEE TROUGH BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE STRONGER TUESDAY. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE PULSE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER...THE BIG WEATHER NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +24C. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD 90S TO THE MOUNTAINS AND TRIPLE DIGITS INTO THE
PIEDMONT...PARTICULARLY SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY
AS A POSSIBLE MCS/SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MCS DOES
COME IN AS SCHEDULE...IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE INSTABILITIES
IN THE REGION AND THEREFORE WE WOULD SEE A QUIETER DAY ON FRIDAY.
WILL BRING HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY AND LOWER POPS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COULD LOWER
TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS EVENING.

BEFORE THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND AFTER 15Z AT KROA AND KLYH.

BEST THREAT OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST
AND IN THE AFTN IN THE EAST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR ACHIEVED

                 AUG 3     AUG 4     AUG 5
BLACKSBURG VA...92/1975   95/1987   93/1987
BLUEFIELD WV....89/1987   90/1995   89/2005
DANVILLE VA.....98/1980  101/1989   99/1991
LYNCHBURG VA...100/1935  100/1930   98/1936
ROANOKE VA.....100/1935  103/1930  105/1930

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JJ
CLIMATE...RCS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             1 ESE CHILHOWIE         36.79N 81.67W
08/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT CHILHOWIE FOOD MART

&&

JJACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE PULASKI            36.99N 80.72W
08/02/2008                   PULASKI            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN DRAPER

&&

TW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>