Severe Thunderstorm Warning 410, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING....AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST US BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG AT ROA BY 14Z...COULD
RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS EARLY TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST...BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE LIMITED WITH WEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....SO
DESPITE WEAKER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MASS...BUT NOT A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ARE QUITE
DRY...SO WILL KEEP ONGOING DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...LOOK FOR A LARGE SPREAD IN DIURNAL TEMPS. AS A RESULT...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z/02 GFS INDICATES
MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EAST AND LATEST
GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER RIDGE WEST ON TUESDAY...SO KNOCKED DOWN
TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL AND OROGRAPHICAL/DIURNAL DRIVEN.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z/02 GFS PUSHES
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINLY OF THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS EVENING.

BEFORE THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND AFTER 15Z AT KROA AND KLYH.

BEST THREAT OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST
AND IN THE AFTN IN THE EAST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR ACHIEVED

                 AUG 2     AUG 3     AUG 4     AUG 5
BLACKSBURG VA...92/1953   92/1975   95/1987   93/1987
BLUEFIELD WV....92/1988   89/1987   90/1995   89/2005
DANVILLE VA.....98/1999   98/1980  101/1989   99/1991
LYNCHBURG VA...101/1942  100/1935  100/1930   98/1936
ROANOKE VA.....101/1942  100/1935  103/1930  105/1930

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH/RCS
AVIATION...PH
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
417 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-030830-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
417 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 95
TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>045-030830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
417 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

WVZ045-021100-
GREENBRIER WV-
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY...

AT 616 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICHWOOD...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTH OF QUINWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR...DUO AT 625 AM EDT...LEONARD AT 640 AM EDT...BARTON
STATE PARK...RORER AT 650 AM EDT.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS
WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

WVZ045-021200-
GREENBRIER WV-
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE INTO GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 654 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SUMMERSVILLE TO 7 MILES WEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...BINGHAM AT
725 AM EDT...QUINWOOD AT 730 AM EDT...DUO...RAINELLE AT 735 AM
EDT...ANJEAN AT 740 AM EDT...RUPERT AT 745 AM EDT...TROUT AT 750 AM
EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PH