Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL AFFECT OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTH EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WW 618 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM EDT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN
FORMING ALONG MESOSCALE VORT AXIS...THE VORT MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS SRN PA...THE AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA. CONCERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA...DCAPES AROUND 800. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. ANY 55DBZ
CORE ABOVE 23K OR 60 DBZ CORE ABOVE 18KFT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END AFTER THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL VORT. AREAS THAT
RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL WILL EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT... ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN AWAY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONUS. A 70-80KT MID LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S F WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THESE STORMS MAY ENTER THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT OVER OUR MOUNTAINS DUE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE...EXIBITING PULSE
STORM CHARACTERISTICS. DCAPES WILL BE HIGH DUE TO FCST LARGE
SFC TEMP/DEWP SPREADS...SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHOVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. W FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALSO MAY DRY OUT MID LEVELS TO THE POINT THAT FRONT
AND STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE PM AS COOLING PROFILE OVERCOMES
THIS AFFECT AND STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...AIR MAY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE CWA...IF
THAT. IF WINDS DIE OFF...A COOL NIGHT WILL FOLLOW AT IN THE SE
WEST VA MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST
COAST LATER TUESDAY...THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN TOO COLD AND TOO
STRONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES. SO...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/WARMER LESS AMPLIFIES SOLUTION EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE.
HOWEVER...STRONG HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL CAUSE
SHRTWVS TO EJECT IN NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DIG A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...AFTER A RESPITE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE
WITH LLVL WAA COMBINING WITH COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS...AS A WEST TO
EAST COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND SCATTERED
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-282000-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001>006-018>020-282000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>045-282000-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
528 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW CLOVERDALE        37.35N 79.97W
06/27/2008                   ROANOKE            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON COYNER SPRINGS ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 460.

&&

SK