Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER FLORIDA AND
THE GULF COAST. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER...CROSSING SE WV AND
INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS. SFC WINDS ARE DIFFLUENT EAST OF THE
MTNS...SO NOT SURE IF THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING EAST OF THE MTNS...SO
EVEN IF ACTIVITY WEAKENS...OUTFLOW SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED RNK SOUNDING FOR A HIGH TEMP OF 87 AND IT YIELDED SBCAPES
OF AROUND 1600 AND AN LI OF M5. A DCAPE OF 558 SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. 55 DBZ CORES ABOVE 23K ARE NEEDED FOR
LARGE HAIL. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE SVR STORMS WERE ENTIRELY PULSE
DRIVEN...TODAYS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE REMNANTS OF PASSING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT TO
OUR NORTH. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND CURRENTLY TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE
MCV (CENTERED OVR PA) ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...IN THE VCNTY OF CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER ACTIVITY.
THIS MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN A 25-30KT SPEED MAX
THROUGH WV. ALL CONSIDERED...THIS SPEED MAX WILL AID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED THAT YOUR TYPICAL PULSE THUNDERSTORM. ATTM...STILL
ANTICIPATE PULSE STORMS...BUT THINK THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORED OVER OUR NRN CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

FOR TONIGHT...WAS SLOW TO REMOVE POPS. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
DECLINE ON CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE BUILDUP OF HEAT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CELLS
CONTINUING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG WAVE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL END
UP PUSHING HEIGHTS DOWN A BIT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR STORMS. BY SUNDAY...THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF TAKES
THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND KEEPS THE MAIN FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...BUT MAY HAVE MORE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM SAT. BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST
COAST LATER TUESDAY...THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN TOO COLD AND TOO
STRONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES. SO...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/WARMER LESS AMPLIFIES SOLUTION EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE.
HOWEVER...STRONG HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL CAUSE
SHRTWVS TO EJECT IN NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DIG A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...AFTER A RESPITE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE
WITH LLVL WAA COMBINING WITH COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS...AS A WEST TO
EAST COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND SCATTERED
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JS/PM
SHORT TERM...JS/WP
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-280815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
403 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW FALCONERVILLE      37.52N 79.11W
06/27/2008                   AMHERST            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES ON NED BROWN RD. STARTED AN
            ELECTRICAL FIRE

&&

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

NCZ004-005-020-271945-
YADKIN NC-ROCKINGHAM NC-STOKES NC-
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WENTWORTH TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YADKINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 16
MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...BELLEWS LAKE...AND
ENON AT 255 PM EDT...WENTWORTH AT 300 PM EDT...COURTNEY AT 310 PM
EDT...HUNTSVILLE AND BETHANY AT 320 PM EDT AND OREGON HILL AT 325 PM
EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BEFORE
4:00PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BLACKSBURG          37.23N 80.43W
06/27/2008                   MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN 5 INCH DIA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW LYNCHBURG AIRPORT  37.36N 79.24W
06/27/2008                   CAMPBELL           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON GRAVES MILL ROAD

0148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE LYNCHBURG AIRPORT  37.38N 79.14W
06/27/2008                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN ON 1800 BLOCK OF MARTIN STREET.

&&

SK