Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
600 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING HOT AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND RAISE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY QUIET...AS MODELS TAKE AN MCV FROM
NRN IND INTO PA AND WEAKEN IT. CORFIDI VECTORS STEER THE
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR WV COUNTIES OVERNIGHT SO LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POP FROM SE WV TO NW NC.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY OTHER
THAN A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF CONVECTION. STRONG WAVE
DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL END UP PUSHING
HEIGHTS DOWN A BIT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY...INCREASING
MOISTR SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND PROVIDING BETTER SUPPORT FOR STORMS.
BY SUNDAY...THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...AND KEEPS THE MAIN FRONT OVER THE OHI VALLEY WITH
LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT MAY HAVE MORE CLOUDS
KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO...KEEPING
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION GOING INTO TUESDAY.
BY WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE WELL OFF THE COAST...SO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WX
EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURNING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  COVERAGE
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
AND THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VARIABLE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-271100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
648 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

VAZ007-262130-
TAZEWELL VA-
436 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICHLANDS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR...RAVEN AT 455 PM EDT...GLEN BURKE AT 500 PM EDT...
RICHLANDS AT 505 PM EDT...RICHLANDS AT 510 PM EDT...CLAYPOOL HILL...
CEDAR BLUFF AT 515 PM EDT...BANDY AT 525 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
503 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOSCOE                  36.17N 81.77W
06/26/2008                   WATAUGA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROW OF SMALL TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 105 AND
            CLARKS CREEK ROAD.

&&

SK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             CANA                    36.58N 80.67W
06/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

            ALSO WIND DAMAGE TO OUT BLDGS.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
558 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROANOKE AIRPORT         37.33N 79.98W
06/26/2008                   ROANOKE            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE LOCKHAVEN AND BRADSHAW AREA
            ABOUT A HALF MILE WEST OF THE AIRPORT.

&&

SK