Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING HOT AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRING ALONG AND LEE OF THE THE RIDGES ATTM...AND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST. WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME DRYING
SHOULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM DRIFTING TO FAR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OUT EAST WILL BE A
FACTOR IF STORMS DECIDE TO FIRE UP OUT THAT WAY...LEADING TO
POTENTIAL DOWNBURST THREAT.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY QUIET...AS MODELS TAKE AN MCV FROM
NRN IND INTO PA AND WEAKEN IT. CORFIDI VECTORS STEER THE
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR WV COUNTIES OVERNIGHT SO LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POP FROM SE WV TO NW NC.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY OTHER
THAN A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF CONVECTION. STRONG WAVE
DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL END UP PUSHING
HEIGHTS DOWN A BIT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY...INCREASING
MOISTR SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND PROVIDING BETTER SUPPORT FOR STORMS.
BY SUNDAY...THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...AND KEEPS THE MAIN FRONT OVER THE OHI VALLEY WITH
LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT MAY HAVE MORE CLOUDS
KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO...KEEPING
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION GOING INTO TUESDAY.
BY WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE WELL OFF THE COAST...SO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WX
EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURNING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  COVERAGE
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
AND THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VARIABLE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-271100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
648 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-261915-
BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-MERCER WV-
214 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAZEWELL...OR ABOUT OVER
TIPTOP...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
NEAR...BOISSEVAIN AT 225 PM EDT...POCAHONTAS...AND COALDALE AT 230 PM
EDT...BLUEFIELD...AND PINNACLE ROCK STATE PARK AT 235 PM
EDT...BLUEFIELD...MERCER CO AIRPORT AT 240 PM EDT...SANDLICK...AND
MATOAKA AT 245 PM EDT...CERES AT 250 PM EDT.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             PEARISBURG              37.32N 80.73W
06/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       GILES              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             PEARISBURG              37.32N 80.73W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       GILES              VA   PUBLIC

&&

KM