Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK
NE THROUGH WV/PA EARLY THIS EVENING DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH 98. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG OUT
BREAK OF TORNADOS WITH ONLY A FEW LOW TOP STORMS SHOWING ROTATION
MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...INGREDIENT ARE RIPE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOS AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEIR
HAS NOT BEEN ANY VERIFICATION ON THE TORNADO WARNING FOR
HENRY/FRANKLIN COUNTY.

ALREADY SENT EARLIER FLOOD WATCH TO COVER ISOLATED FLOOD POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT/MODERATE BAND
OF PRECIP CONTINUES. OTRW WAITING FOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN
TO START SLIDING ENE AS NEGATIVE TILT TAKES PLACE AND NOSE OF UPPER
JET ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY HELP THE ONGOING LINES TO MERGE
INTO ONE AND THEN BOW NE ALLOWING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO MORE EMBEDDED NATURE
CONVECTION AND MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT PER LACK OF INSTAB
BUT GOOD DYNAMICS/WINDS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE 22-02Z WHEN BEST RH...PWATS...UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E
RIDGING COINCIDE. THIS LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ESPCLY WEST. FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY PUNCH SCOURING OUT DEEP RH TO THE NE
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. HOWEVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH POOL OF COLD 85H AIR CROSSING INTO THE NW
UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS
QUITE WARM THINK ANY -SHSN WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK SO
SLOWED DOWN MIX OVER A BIT. EXPECT QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT BELOW ADVISORY GIVEN
30-40 KT 850 MB JET. LEFT LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN
TRENDS OF LATE FOR MODELS TO BE TOO FAST WITH COLD ADVECTION.

SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN MAY LINGER EARLY WED OTRW DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW. THIS IN COMBO
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. GIVEN DRY WESTERLY FLOW STAYED ON
THE WARM SIDE OF MOS TEMPS ESPCLY EAST WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE IN ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...THEREFORE RIDGES MAYBE 5-10F WARMER THAN THE
VALLEYS AND OUT EAST. ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS IN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE FORECAST AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE BELIEVABLE SOLUTION WITH A DAMP COOL PERIOD. SHORT WAVES AND
WARM MOIST AIR TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS. A SURFACE WAVE
WILL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW STILL IN QUESTION WHETHER IT STAYS INLAND OR OFF
THE COAST. EITHER WAY...LIGHT RAIN FALLING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
IN OUR AREA WILL CREATE AN INSITU WEDGE WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKING WARM
ENOUGH TO HAVE JUST A COLD RAIN IN THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF. FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MID WEST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEW POINT FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT COULD COME IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

WITH RAIN AND INSITU WEDGE IN THE AREA...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DOWNWARD TREND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE WEST STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND
INCREASES IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE. ALSO...SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 KTS HIGHER
AT BLF.

MAIN THREAT TO OPERATIONS DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA. SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE 40-50 KT GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. CLEARING WILL BE
QUICK BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
BUILD BACK INTO BLF AND LWB LATE TNGT WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY KEEPING VFR...UNTIL
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHWS AT KLWB/KBLF FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW AGAIN
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042-043-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

VAZ014-018>020-022>024-033>035-045>047-059-051945-
MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ011>013-WVZ044-051945-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONROE-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ042-043-045-051945-
MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ010-051945-
BLAND-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009-051945-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ003-019-VAZ017-032-051945-
SURRY-WILKES-FLOYD-PATRICK-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ016-051945-
CARROLL-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-002-018-051945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ015-051945-
GRAYSON-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043-044-058-051945-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
235 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ004>006-VAZ017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-042130-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...FLOYD...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...
SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE
327 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS ARE GOING TO MOVE FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BRING
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH. THIS MAY BREAK SMALL LIMBS OFF OF
TREES. THE RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS ONE
INCH BETWEEN 330 PM AND 600 PM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG REGION BY 430 PM...AND EAST TO
BUCKINGHAM AND CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE BY 600 PM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR ESTIMATED
WIND GUSTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT
RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE NUMBER 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2
4.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLOOD            BLUEFIELD               37.24N 81.27W
03/04/2008                   TAZEWELL           VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS ALONG ROUTE 102

&&

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
507 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLOOD            6 E FRANKFORD           37.92N 80.27W
03/04/2008                   GREENBRIER         WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FRIAR HILL ROAD UNDER WATER. EAST OF HIGHWAY 219

&&

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR REPORT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
507 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLOOD            6 E FRANKFORD           37.92N 80.27W
03/04/2008                   GREENBRIER         WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FRIAR HILL ROAD UNDER WATER. EAST OF HIGHWAY 219

&&

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
515 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAYNES                  36.27N 79.30W
03/04/2008                   CASWELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A RESIDENCE ON BAYNES ROAD.

&&

SK