Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 061315
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
816 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

WVC045-059-061326-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080206T1315Z/
LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-
816 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MINGO AND LOGAN COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 815 AM EST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER OTHER WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3762 8217 3766 8227 3774 8235 3777 8234
      3782 8242 3800 8212 3803 8196 3798 8197
      3795 8191 3795 8186 3777 8171 3777 8175
      3773 8175 3755 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 237DEG 64KT 3775 8229

$$

09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER AIR SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE NORMAL WINTER TEMPERATURES. WINTER REALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO CANCEL BOTH TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES...AS
SEVERE WEATHER HAS EXITED WATCH AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SQUALL LINE PROCEEDING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AT 330
AM...MOST LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE WATCHES THAT
WERE ISSUED TIL 11Z LOOK GOOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL BEGIN
TRIMMING WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS BY 10Z. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FEED OF
CONVECTION LIFTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...SO
HIGH POPS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA THRU MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...MAY BE
A BREAK AS THINGS RELOAD FOR THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS PUSH COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER AROUND
18Z...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 21Z...AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
23Z. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING ECHOES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO FLOOD WATCH IN THE WEST STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS THEY ALSO
GOT A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP EXCESSIVE RAINS OUT OF REST OF AREA THAT
DID NOT RECEIVE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S WITH
RECORD HIGHS BASED ON THEIR FORECAST. HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS DUE TO
EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NO WINDS
ADVISORY SEEN AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES MOVE IN
ALOFT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO
FALL...THUS CHANGEOVER TO POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL BE SLOW. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING THE REMAINDER OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH IT AFTER A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE NEXT 500HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WITHOUT
MUCH FANFARE...BUT SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD COVER GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST...AND THE SUBSEQUENT GENERATION OF AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SIGNIFY THE OBVIOUS RETURN TO WINTER WITH
VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS POURING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A POLAR VORTEX DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND.

BEFORE THAT...WEAK WAA YIELDS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.  AN SNOW
ACCUM WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESOLVE AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH RETURNS WINTER TO
THE AREA SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT.  H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C RANGE SUN
AND SUN NGT.  THIS MEANS WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACH
THE 30S EVEN IN THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER AIR
SYSTEM CROSSES SUNDAY AND COULD YIELD A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE MTNS.  MSTR REMAINS A QUESTION...SO WILL NOT INSERT ANY VERBIAGE
IN THE HWO YET ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS.

MID LVL HGTS BUILD DAYS 6 AND 7 ALLOWING A SHORT VISIT BY OLD MAN
WINTER.  TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
PRECEEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONCENTRATED BAND
OF CONVECTION AFFECTING MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SHOWERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER BAND OF
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT.
COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STROMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. AFTER 06Z PRECIP ENDING FOR THE MOST PART IN THE WEST...WHILE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUING AREA WIDE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z THU/...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SMALL STREAM AND CREEK FLOODING...THE
HOCKING...MUSKINGUM...AND OHIO RIVERS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR
BANKFULL.  THE OHIO RIVER WILL SEE A STRONG RISE LATER THIS WEEK DUE
TO UPSTREAM RAINFALL IN THE ALLEGHANY BASIN.  PLEASE REFER TO THE
AHPS SECTION OF OUR WEBPAGE FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...29
AVIATION...JMV
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
739 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-071245-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
739 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ014-071245-
PUTNAM-
739 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015>020-024>040-046-047-071245-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-LINCOLN-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
739 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

WVZ016-018-019-028>030-039-061000-
BRAXTON WV-ROANE WV-CALHOUN WV-GILMER WV-UPSHUR WV-LEWIS WV-RITCHIE
WV-
419 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 419 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 41 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WESTON...OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORKED RUN STATE FOREST...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HORNER...WALKERSVILLE...IRELAND...CAMDEN...ALUM BRIDGE AND SERVIA.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

WVZ024>026-033-034-061015-
LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-WYOMING WV-MINGO WV-BOONE WV-
426 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 426 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED OVER EAST
CENTRAL MINGO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRUNDY...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... BRUNO...HAMPDEN...AVONDALE...ELBERT...MAYBEURY AND
  COALWOOD.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08