Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
518 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA BUT PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OH.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA THRU THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS AND WEATHER AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
AND WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW STILL FAR ENOUGH NORTH...NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES STILL...SHOULD SEE VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY SOME DAY TIME CU FORMING.  SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.  BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THE 00Z NAM AND THE 00Z GFS BOTH HAD THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH...BUT COMING AT NIGHT AND WITH THE MOISTURE BEING
LIMITED HAVE JUST ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAS A BIT BETTER TIMING COMING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIFT
AND THE CU FIELD...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP SO
HAVE ADDED MORE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO REPEAT ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY PASSES THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PERIOD...HAVE LEANED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAS BEEN RUNNING
TOO WARM AND WITH THE 850 TEMPERATURES IT IS FORECASTING CAN NOT
SUPPORT THE MAV NUMBERS.  FOR LOWS AT NIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MET LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER AS THE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
IDEAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.  ON THURSDAY...LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FCST TOWARD THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS WHICH ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IT SHOULD BE COOLER
BASED ON THE 850 TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WITH RIDGE
BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOWING WEAK ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND PUSH
THROUGH BY SUNDAY.  INTRODUCED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BLEND OF MOS/HPC AND CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE CROSSING WEST
VIRGINIA...ARE SHIFTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. THUS...ALTHOUGH VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THUNDER ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY IFR FOG AT EKN AS WINDS DIMINISH
IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z TUESDAY/...NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-170830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
419 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
446 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

OHZ083>085-162115-
VINTON OH-MEIGS OH-JACKSON OH-
446 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 446 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MCARTHUR
TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON...OR FROM MCARTHUR TO 6 MILES NORTH
OF WAVERLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... RADCLIFFE...HARRISONVILLE...DYESVILLE...DEXTER...
  CARPENTER AND BYER.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             WILKESVILLE             39.08N 82.33W
06/16/2008  E0.75 INCH       VINTON             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABEAVERS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
601 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

OHZ075-076-WVZ009-162230-
ATHENS OH-WASHINGTON OH-WOOD WV-
601 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 601 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COOLVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DAVISVILLE...WALKER...LITTLE HOCKING...BELPRE...WASHINGTON AND
  PARKERSBURG.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
603 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             POMEROY                 39.10N 82.04W
06/16/2008  U0.75 INCH       MEIGS              OH   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN