Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF TODAY...UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN ENTIRE AREA. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TIME WILL ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN THIS WILL ROLL ACROSS
AREA. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND MAINTAINED MENTION OF SEVERE.
THINGS WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY EVENING AS FRONT MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WANES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
AND WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW STILL FAR ENOUGH NORTH...NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES STILL...SHOULD SEE VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY SOME DAY TIME CU FORMING.  SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.  BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THE 00Z NAM AND THE 00Z GFS BOTH HAD THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH...BUT COMING AT NIGHT AND WITH THE MOISTURE BEING
LIMITED HAVE JUST ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAS A BIT BETTER TIMING COMING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIFT
AND THE CU FIELD...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP SO
HAVE ADDED MORE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO REPEAT ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY PASSES THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PERIOD...HAVE LEANED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAS BEEN RUNNING
TOO WARM AND WITH THE 850 TEMPERATURES IT IS FORECASTING CAN NOT
SUPPORT THE MAV NUMBERS.  FOR LOWS AT NIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MET LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER AS THE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
IDEAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.  ON THURSDAY...LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FCST TOWARD THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS WHICH ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IT SHOULD BE COOLER
BASED ON THE 850 TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WITH RIDGE
BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOWING WEAK ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND PUSH
THROUGH BY SUNDAY.  INTRODUCED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BLEND OF MOS/HPC AND CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE CROSSING WEST
VIRGINIA...ARE SHIFTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. THUS...ALTHOUGH VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY IFR FOG AT EKN AS WINDS DIMINISH IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z TUESDAY/...NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-170830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
419 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

WVZ031-032-039-040-047-161900-
UPSHUR WV-RANDOLPH WV-TAYLOR WV-HARRISON WV-BARBOUR WV-
226 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 226 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY TO SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY...OR FROM 8
MILES SOUTH OF MANNINGTON TO 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WESTON...MOVING
EAST AT 31 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... MEADOWBROOK...ROSEMONT...THORNTON...TALLMANSVILLE...
  KANAWHA HEAD AND ALEXANDER.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
230 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             LOUISA                  37.98N 82.59W
06/16/2008  U0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTON                  39.04N 80.47W
06/16/2008                   LEWIS              WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN AND LEANING ON POWER AND PHONE LINES.

&&

ABEAVERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
303 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             LOUISA                  37.98N 82.59W
06/16/2008  U0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             DINGESS                 37.87N 82.17W
06/16/2008  E1.00 INCH       MINGO              WV   POST OFFICE

&&

ABEAVERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             LOGAN                   37.85N 81.99W
06/16/2008  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CAR WINDSHIELDS BROKEN.

&&

ABEAVERS