Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
824 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD WITH COOLER
DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...

A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SW NC UNTIL 1 AM EDT...

WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AS WEDGE BOUNDARY LIFTS NNW...MARKING THE DEMISE OF THE LATEST CAD
EVENT. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS...WHILE SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 500 JOULES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN HALF. 45 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 5O TO 60KTS
RESIDES OVER THE AREA AS WELL. FINALLY...LCL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 500
TO 700 METERS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT (200 TO 250 M/S) WILL RESULT IN
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADIC CELLS. THUS..A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SW PIEDMONT UNTIL 1 AM EDT. THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
EAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTORS DESTABILIZES FURTHER.

     PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2PM...

SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANT HYBRID COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE REMAINING ACROSS ONLY THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AS OF
18Z. TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE TRIAD
TO UPPER 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST CONUS
(DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST CONUS).

OVERVIEW:
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE REMAINING REMNANT
WEDGE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY ERODED AND ALL OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN WARM SECTORED GIVEN 25-30 KNOT FLOW PROGGED
IN THE MIXED LAYER. EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S INTO
THE 60S EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE 70S ALONG/EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS MAY SLOWLY RISE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

PRECIPITATION:
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE ISENTROPES. ANY LIFT TODAY
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...IN THE FORM OF WARM ADVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE GFS/NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (VERY SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS)
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A LINE OF CONVECTION
APPROACHES CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. SO...
BASICALLY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN WARM SECTORED. THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING
IN ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE...AND THEREFORE WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. -VINCENT/STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD... WITH EVENT TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES... AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASED OVER PRIOR THINKING. GFS MODEL
IS QUITE GENEROUS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS THE FRONT ON THE 295 KELVIN SURFACE AS A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY
DROPPING ALMOST DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD VEERING OF THE WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A TORNADO RISK CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. OTHERWISE... WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST STRONGEST IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AREA... THIS AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FAVORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE JUMPS TO AS
HIGH AS ABOUT 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES PERHAPS AS LOW AS
MINUS FOUR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT SIX TO SIX
AND A HALF DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER. LATE MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIMING...THOUGH SOMETHING
EARLIER IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH SHOULD BE EXITING
THE AREA TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE... ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

IF TIMING AND EXTEND OF RAINS ARE ON TRACK...SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING AND THEN HOLDING STEADY AS WIDESPREAD RAINS OCCUR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 64 TO 71 BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS 45 NORTHWEST TO 55 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CAROLINA TO SOLID TO RUN A RISK OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH
CAROLINA LOOK QUITE WEAK AND FEEL THE BEST COURSE IS CONTINUE DRY.

THURSDAY FRIDAY RAINS ARE IN MOST OF THE MODELS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS OFTEN MOVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOO FAST. AT WORST THE MUCH SLOWER
TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION WELL
OUT EAST OF THIS SYSTEM SUSPECT.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN RISING TO BE SOLIDLY
IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD... REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  FQT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KINT AND KGSO WITH CIGS BLO 1 THSD FT AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.  ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS INCREASING FROM THE WEST.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON
SAT.  LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT KINT AND KGSO THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRDU AND KRWI BY MIDDAY.  KFAY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...BUT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE IN A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH AND PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR OR IFR IN DAYBREAK STRATUS OR FOG EACH
MORNING.  -RFG

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RFG
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RLH
LONG TERM...RLH
AVIATION...RFG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1117 PM EDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW NORMAN            35.15N 79.75W
04/04/2008                   RICHMOND           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN BETWEEN ELLERBE AND NORMAN ON CAPEL
            MILL ROAD AT APPROXIMATELY 1038 EST.

&&

WFORAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1127 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2008

NCZ024-025-040>042-076-077-050400-
CHATHAM-DURHAM-HARNETT-JOHNSTON-LEE-ORANGE-WAKE-
1127 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...DURHAM...WAKE...
CHATHAM...JOHNSTON...LEE AND HARNETT COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1127 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN RALEIGH...PITTSBORO...AND SOUTHERN PINES ...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 47 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

RFG

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