Severe Thunderstorm Warning 358, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
810 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST AIR MASS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

DUE TO THE MORE STABLE AIR COVERING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736 WAS
EXPIRED EARLY. BUT GIVEN THE NEW STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739... IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT FOR THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF
THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE RALEIGH... DURHAM... LOUISBURG...
OXFORD... AND WARRENTON AREAS.

AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...

RECENTLY UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS THIS EVENING IN THE EAST
AS AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MAINTAINED HIGH LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AS LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
SE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT REALITY.

POTENT MID LEVEL S/W PROGGED TO AFFECT REGION LATE THIS EVENING
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY INVIGORATE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST AND NORTH OF RDU AFTER 06Z. WILL MAINTAIN
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS EAST AFTER 06Z...DWINDLING TO SMALL
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THU WITH NW FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ADVECTING DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CENTRAL NC THU. THIS
STABLE AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL U.S. CONVECTION.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON....PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
EXPECTED (IF GFS VERIFIES CLOSER TO 2 INCHES). MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICT WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6 DEG
C/KM BY 00Z SUN. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND APPROACH OF
TROUGH...BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LATE IN THE
DAY OVER THE NW THIRD OF CWA. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS A
SHADE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

RESPECTABLE L/W TROUGH (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL MAINTAIN A
POSITION OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID
WEEK. MEANWHILE A STALLED...WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STRETCH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND PERTURBATION ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHEN AIR MASS MOST UNSTABLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM FOR
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT. ANY REMNANTS OR MCS-INDUCED VORTICES WOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF
CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM WEDNESDAY...

OF MOST IMMEDIATE AVIATION CONCERN IS THE ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE INT/GSO VICINITIES. THIS BAND
SHOULD BE EAST OF INT/GSO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS BAND
SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST... AFFECTING THE RDU AREA 01-03Z BASED
ON CURRENT MOVEMENT. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED VFR BUT VSBYS COULD
DROP TO 2-3SM IN STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THE RISK OF STORMS AT
RWI/FAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN... AND HAVE JUST COVERED THIS WITH A
PERIOD OF VCSH OR VCTS LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN IS LOW
CLOUDS AT FAY/RWI WHERE NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING
BROKEN IFR CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED SCT-BKN IFR CLOUDS HERE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL WATCH THE LATEST TRENDS TO SEE IF THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL EXTEND ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
FAY/RWI WHICH ARE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
WHERE HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC VERY LATE TONIGHT... DRY AIR
WILL ARRIVE... SWEEPING OUT THE RAIN CHANCES AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS
AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING... MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
826 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ024-240130-
ORANGE-
826 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM
EDT...

AT 826 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CARR...OR ABOUT OVER PROSPECT HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SCHLEY...AND...
EFLAND...HILLSBOROUGH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             CEDAR GROVE             36.17N 79.16W
07/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       ORANGE             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EMS UNTIT REPORTED HAIL ALONG WITH HIGH WIND.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             CEDAR GROVE             36.17N 79.16W
07/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       ORANGE             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EMS UNIT REPORTED HAIL ALONG WITH HIGH WIND.

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
843 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ008-025-240145-
DURHAM-GRANVILLE-
843 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS GRANVILLE AND DURHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BAHAMA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF DURHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...GORMAN...BETHESDA...BUTNER...AND DURHAM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...AND LAWN FURNITURE COULD BE
TOSSED AROUND.

JO