Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE AND INTO KENTUCKY WITH AN
INITIAL DRY PUNCH NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...
FOLLOWED BY STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW
NEAR KHTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GOOD PRESSURE FALLS WERE
NOTED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON MSAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
AS MUCH AS A MILLIBAR PER HOUR...WITH LIFTED INDICES TO -2C NEAR
THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND TO -3C ALONG AND NEAR
THE COLD FRONT. IN BETWEEN...THERE WAS A NARROW AREA OF PRESSURE
RISES AND SURFACE DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAIN JUST WEST OF THE TRIAD...BUT THIS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST. TORNADO
WATCH 98 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

KRAX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...TO 55 OR 60 KNOTS BY 3000FT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT LINE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS LINE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TRIAD TO WADESBORO AND
ROCKINGHAM BY 9 PM... SWEEPING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE WIND PROFILES
THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000FT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS TO RESULT IN
SOME ROTATING STORMS. EARLIER COUPLETS WERE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
THE KRAX WSR-88D AS THEY WERE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA PARTICULARLY IN ALAMANCE AND PERSON COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST-TO-EAST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS MAY APPROACH THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD BY DAYBREAK.
TOWARD KRWI...LOWS MAY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLEARING AND
DRYING NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL VERY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXITS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. DEEP WLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER BUT
RELATIVELY MILD AIR INTO REGION. THICKNESSES WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS AROUND 60 NW TO THE MID 60S SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS REGION WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. WENT A DEGREES OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO BACK LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEP W-SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY REGIME. THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH SW
FLOW WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF MAX TEMPS END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY IF LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON
ENHANCING NEAR SURFACE SW FLOW.

THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET
PROGGED TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THU INTO EARLY
FRI. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE LOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF JET ENERGY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF  THE TROUGH WHICH USUALLY TRANSLATES TO A SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT. NONETHELESS....DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SLY OVER REGION LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET BY FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

AIR MASS GAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL
RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHILE A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS FAVORS A WARMER REGIME. WENT MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FOR NOW WITH A MAX TEMP TEND OF LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S
SE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IF
MODEL ACHIEVE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD. WENT WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. THIS IS LIKELY CONSERVATIVE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRI INTO FRI EVENING AND PRECIP WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM TUESDAY...

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING/DEPTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. ECMWF APPEARS TOO WRAPPED
UP WHILE THE GFS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS E-NE MOVEMENT. THE 00Z
CANADIAN APPEARS TO OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH IS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE ECMWF.

WITH THIS IN MIND...ANY RAIN OCCURRING EARLY SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR E-NE SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...DEPARTING
PRIOR TO 81Z SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS REGION SO HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND
15 MPH. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPS IN THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE EXTENT
OF CAA. THE LOW LEVEL CAA MAY BE DELAYED OR DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
DUE TO LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST BUT THESE TEMPS MAY STILL
BE TOO COOL BY A CATEGORY.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION. PERTURBATIONS IN W-NW WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS MON INTO TUE. AIR MASS APPEAR TOO DRY AND PERTURBATIONS
TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP OF CONSEQUENCE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAY EAST TONIGHT... THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH THE FRONT CLEARING
OUR EASTERN BORDER 06Z-08Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE... HOWEVER
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY... THEN SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.  -RHJ

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN STRATUS AND RAIN FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRY AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. -RFG

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RHJ/RFG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
445 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-052145-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
445 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 98 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO OCCUR WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD POSE A FLOODING PROBLEM
IN FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE
VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED
FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

NCZ011-027-028-043-078-089-052145-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
445 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO OCCUR WILL BE THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD POSE A FLOODING PROBLEM
IN FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED
FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
909 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ027-028-043-078-050315-
EDGECOMBE-NASH-WAYNE-WILSON-
909 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH...EDGECOMBE...WILSON
AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EST...

AT 909 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PIKEVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR EUREKA AROUND 915 PM EST...
STANTONSBURG AROUND 920 PM EST...SARATOGA AROUND 925 PM EST...
MACCLESFIELD AROUND 930 PM EST...PINETOPS AROUND 935 PM EST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
918 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BISCOE                  35.36N 79.78W
03/04/2008                   MONTGOMERY         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN BISCOE BLOCKING ROADS.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
922 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             COLFAX                  36.13N 80.02W
03/04/2008  E0.75 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
933 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     WADESBORO               34.97N 80.07W
03/04/2008  M55 MPH          ANSON              NC   AWOS

            WIND GUST OF 55 MPH MEASURED BY WADESBORO AWOS...SITE
            KAFP...AT 920 PM.

&&

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
941 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW GLENDON            35.47N 79.55W
03/04/2008                   MOORE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR NORTH MOORE HIGH SCHOOL ON NORTH
            MOORE RD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
948 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N UNION RIDGE         36.23N 79.38W
03/04/2008                   ALAMANCE           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN AND MINOR DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE
            ON WILLIE PACE RD NEAR UNION RIDGE.

&&

BSD