River Flood Warning 6, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR MYRTLE BEACH
A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MAJOR LINGERING CONCERN THROUGH AFTERNOON (AND PROBABLY FOR A FEW
HOURS BEYOND) WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END RATHER
RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL BE CANCELING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN PROGRESS IN THE EASTERN HALF WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

AS HANNA CIRCULATION MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST VA TOWARDS MID DAY...
W-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL ADVECT DRIER
AIR INTO REGION. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS SLOWLY DEPART THIS EVENING. AIR MASS
DRIES OUT ENOUGH SUNDAY OVER MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA TO EXCLUDE
MENTION OF POPS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR S-SE WHERE A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ENTERS REGION WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY (-3 TO -4 BY AFTERNOON) ALONG WITH  MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SLOWLY DRAG SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THEN STALL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA.
MEANWHILE DRY AIR RIDGE NOSES SWD FROM PARENT HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND.
PARENT HIGH RATHER WEAK (1027MB) BUT PATTERN SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR
CAD EVENT. 850MB FLOW REMAIN S-SE THROUGH EVENT WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERCAST SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
LATER RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IF CAD EVENT
DOES MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS WED AND THU MAY END UP BEING 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM SATURDAY...
HANNAS CIRCULATION CENTER IS QUICKLY TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
RESTRICTED TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. HIGH WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 45KTS AT FAY AND RWI TO 25 KNOTS AT GSO AND INT WILL BE OF
CONCERN AS WELL.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BY MIDDAY...AS HANNAS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIELD LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE EVENING...WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL MAKE LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT RDU...RWI...AND FAY WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ042-077-078-085-
086-088-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-
023>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ074>076-083-084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ010-011-
026>028-041-043.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>009-024-
025-040.
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089-071000-
JOHNSTON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

NCZ074>076-083-084-071000-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-071000-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER MID DAY AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

NCZ010-026-027-041-043-071000-
WARREN-FRANKLIN-NASH-WAKE-WILSON-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

NCZ011-028-070900-
HALIFAX-EDGECOMBE-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 890 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

NCZ007>009-024-025-040-071000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-
501 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL
STORM HANNA MOVES NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THEIR AREA AS QUICKLY AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
918 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RALEIGH                 35.81N 78.64W
09/06/2008                   WAKE               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON APARTMENT BUILDING AT NAVAHO DRIVE. SEVERAL
            UNITS EVACUATED.

&&

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
919 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GOLDSBORO               35.37N 77.98W
09/06/2008                   WAYNE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN GOLDSBORO.

&&

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE CHAPEL HILL       35.97N 79.01W
09/06/2008                   ORANGE             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF ERWIN AND MT.MORIAH WATER WAS FIVE
            TO SIX INCHES DEEP.

&&

LEPAGANO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
958 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW GOLDSBORO         35.35N 77.98W
09/06/2008                   WAYNE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS SLOCUMB STREET... NEAR
            SEYMORE-JOHNSON AIR FORCE BASE.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
959 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE GOLDSBORO         35.35N 77.96W
09/06/2008                   WAYNE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS SEYMOUR-JOHNSON AIR
            FORCE BASE.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NE CHAPEL HILL          35.93N 79.04W
09/06/2008                   ORANGE             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            EVACUATIONS BEGINNING DUE TO FLASH FLOODING AT THE
            CAMELOT APARTMENTS... NEAR ESTES DRIVE IN CHAPEL HILL.

&&

BSD