Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS MOVING SO SLOWLY THAT IT
MAY NOT CLEAR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. HENCE
EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TIL THEN ALONG WITH
SCATTERED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AS SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND RECENT
RADAR DATA SHOWS SHORT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING 60 MPH.
THIS INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MAY DIMINISH INSTABILITY IN THEIR WAKE
DECREASING CHANCE OF SUCH THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
EVENING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECT
SATURATION OF RAIN-MOISTENED SURFACE LAYER.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SREF MODEL RUNS...EXPECT SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE BOTH DAYS DUE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONTS SLOW MOVEMENT.

BLEND OF RECENT SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD
FRONT CLEARING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVING
THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HENCE HAVE FORECASTED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED BY GFS
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONCUR WITH HPC THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWN BY BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF
MODEL RUNS. THESE MODELS KEEP A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS WHICH IS A TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR MID SUMMER. SUCH
A SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO LOW TO MENTION AS INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC
AND GFS MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTED THUNDERSTORM TIMING BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA WITH
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS FOR KPIT AND VICINITY AND BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE IN WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MAINLY VFR CUMULUS INTO EVENING. PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG
EXPECTED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES PREVALENT AND IFR POSSIBLE AS
RAIN-MOISTENED SURFACE LAYER SATURATES AS INDICATED BY NAM
PROFILES.

JUDGING FROM RECENT SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE AND VFR CUMULUS CEILING PUNCTURED BY BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY
AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1245 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

OHZ040-041-049-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-030-WVZ001>003-
211645-
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-
INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
1245 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-OHZ039-048-057>059-068-069-PAZ031-032-WVZ004-012-021>023-041-
211645-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
GREENE-FAYETTE-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
1245 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRISTOWN              40.06N 81.07W
07/20/2008                   BELMONT            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

JDARNLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELMONT                 40.03N 81.04W
07/20/2008                   BELMONT            OH   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARS                    40.70N 80.01W
07/20/2008                   BUTLER             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG SHANON ROAD.

&&

JDARNLEY

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