Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...DOPPLER RADARS INDICATED THE RESULT
OF SUBTLE LIFT ACROSS THE PAH FCST AREA...SCT VERY LIGHT SHWRS. A
SQUALL LINE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN EXTREME WRN MO.

THE BIG EVENT WILL GET STARTED TODAY AS A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A LOBE
OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LOW IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SWING AROUND
ITS EAST SIDE TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A FAST NNEWD MOVING
SFC LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STEADILY
APPROACH THE PAH FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BASED ON
CONVECTION OCCURRING TO OUR WEST...SOME TSTMS MAY MAKE IT INTO SERN MO
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IN ADDITION...60 PLUS DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 60 PLUS KT LLJ TO PROVIDE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER OUR
REGION FOR THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. BEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL
HELICITY APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN MO EARLY... THEN THE LOW LEVEL
BULK SHEAR WILL BECOME A BIT MORE LINEAR LATE. THIS MEANS
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES IN THE AFTN IN THE
WEST...VS. THE EARLY EVENING WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FARTHER EAST.

THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING THE MO OZARKS AROUND 00Z...
WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX WILL CONTINUE EWD WELL INTO THE EVE...AND
POSSIBLY PAST MIDNIGHT DESPITE A SLOWLY STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN PART OF THE PAH FCST AREA...ALL SHWR ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z SAT. DURING THE AFTN...WE HELD
A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHWR FOR THE AFTN IN THE NERN CORNER...INDUCED
BY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.

A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT WARM
REGIME FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER IN THE WEEK...ECMWF/GFS DO NOT AGREE TOO
WELL ON THE LOCATION/TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT IT
APPEARS SHWRS MAY OCCUR EARLIER...AND TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER WARM MOIST ADVECTION. VIRTUALLY NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 4.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CIGS AMIDST THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY AND ESP INTO THE EVENING...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPORARY IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD BE PRODUCED IN A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE EVENING...
AFTER WHICH SKIES WILL CLEAR AND OVERALL CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO
VFR. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SLY WITH GUSTS WELL THRU THE 20S...
THOUGH A STORM COULD YIELD HIGHER GUSTS...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
AND WINDS GO SWLY-WLY AND DIMINISH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....DB
AVIATION...DH

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