Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
212 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE POPS...COVERAGE...AND TIMING WITH ONGOING
SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

COLD FRONT AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AT THE TIME
OF THIS WRITING...AND MOVING EASTWARD. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS TO DETERMINE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH THE HUGE AREA OF
ONGOING CONVECTION AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BASED ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CURRENT SYSTEM...WILL BE TRIMMING
BACK POPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL BE THE GREATEST AFFECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDAY SATURDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS BACK TO SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE ONSET OF POPS/WX WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE ECMWF STILL RELATIVELY CONSISTENT BY KEEPING
IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WILL JUST GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
FEEL/SIGNAL FOR TIMING/COVERAGE/ETC.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...CONTINUES TO IMPACT KEVV AND
KOWB. NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL THREATEN KCGI AND KPAH...AND EVENTUALLY KEVV AND KOWB. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN COMMONPLACE WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS. GRADIENT WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRESENT WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WE WILL HAVE
BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS LEFT BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FORM IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEREFORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCOURS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST...AND WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING TO DO SO.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
943 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
943 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE REGION. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AN INITIAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
HAIL. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SQUALL LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THIS LINE OF STORMS PASSES ON THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1138 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTT CITY              37.22N 89.53W
05/02/2008                   SCOTT              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN SCOTT CITY AND ALSO ALONG HWY
            61.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
05/02/2008                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER REPORTED OVER HWY P NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MO.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENALLEN               37.32N 90.03W
05/02/2008                   BOLLINGER          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LATE REPORT. DOWNED TREES NEAR THE COMMUNITY. ALSO
            REPORTED NEAR PATTON AROUND THE SAME TIME.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAIRO                   37.00N 89.18W
05/02/2008                   ALEXANDER          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OLIVE BRANCH TOWN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUND CITY              37.09N 89.16W
05/02/2008                   PULASKI            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STANDING WATER OF SEVERAL LOW-LYING ROADS WITH HIGHWAY
            DEPARTMENT RESPONDING TO LOCATIONS NOW.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
144 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARION                  37.33N 88.08W
05/02/2008                   CRITTENDEN         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STANDING WATER ALONG HIGHWAY 365 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
            AND 2, AND LONG HIGHWAY 664N AT THE 6 MILE MARKER.

&&

SMITTY