Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO INCOMING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES TODAY...WITH 50KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.
SQUALL LINE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS HISTORY OF
SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE AND 65 MPH WINDS. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...WIND PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. DECENT INSTABILITY PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH LI'S IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY REALLY GETS SQUASHED DOWN TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT MOST AREAS WILL AT
LEAST GET ANOTHER HEAVY SHOT OF RAIN EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(WEST) OR THIS EVENING (FURTHER EAST). THINK TOTALS WILL BE IN THE
HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. AM CURRENTLY ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT IN SPEEDING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ALL AREAS WITHIN ABOUT A
RATHER SHORT (3 TO 4 HOUR) PERIOD...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
AT THIS TIME.

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS TODAY..WITH
ISOLATED 50 TO 60 MPH...ESP IN HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR EARLY TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD BE LOCALLY UP TO 40 KNOTS. A LINE OF STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. THE
DURATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-
     SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC.....MEFFERT
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281215-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
214 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS A SMALL PART OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
UNTIL 7 PM. ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND MOST OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME
IS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE TIME FRAME IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PLENTY OF
WARMTH AND MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. THESE INGREDIENTS MAY COMBINE
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS. A FEW
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...EITHER ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

THE MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND
60 MPH. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EAST AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SEE THE WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

MY/JAP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

MOZ100-107>109-272215-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF
310 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH 4 PM. STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 60 TO 70
MPH...WHILE THE LINE WILL MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD. VAN
BUREN...FREMONT...PIEDMONT AND DONIPHAN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACES TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH 4 PM. IN
ADDITION...AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
457 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ILZ075-080-084-088-092-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-280100-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-JACKSON-UNION IL-ALEXANDER-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-
CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
CARBONDALE...JONESBORO...CAIRO...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
457 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH 7 PM. STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60
MPH...WHILE THE LINE WILL MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD. NEW
MADRID...SIKESTON AND CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...AS WELL AS ANNA
AND TAMAROA ILLINOIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO EXPERIENCE
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. IN ADDITION...AHEAD OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS MANY
COMMUNITIES MAY EXPERIENCE SHORT PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINS...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH OR MORE IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.