Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Norman, OK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
738 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
PONCA CITY TO WATONGA AND HOBART IN OKLAHOMA...TO VERNON AND SEYMOUR
IN TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS
GOLFBALLS...AND FLOODING RAINS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL TRANSITION TOWARD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...AND INTERACT WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT...AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. DURING THE
EVENING...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THE LONGER LIVED STORMS MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS. THESE WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH OF
A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
ROOTED CLOSER TO THE GROUND...AND WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING NOT ONLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT ALSO DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE EAST OF
A LINE FROM MARIETTA TO ADA TO CALVIN...AND MAINLY THROUGH 11 PM.

BY 11 PM...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY MERGE AND BEGIN TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DEEP AND
SUSTAINED LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUSTAINED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR FLOODING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY... THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
HAVE DIMINISHED. LATER IN THE WEEK... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING ON MAINSTEM RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24/BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ052-180215-
BRYAN OK-
902 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CALERA AT 902 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN BRYAN COUNTY. LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

BURKE

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