Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST A
BIT. NAM/GFS SUPPORT AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL A LITTLE BIT FURTHER
BACK TO THE NW AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED LOCATTION
OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. THUS UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  52  38  64 /  80  50  40   0
HOBART OK         39  53  36  66 /  50  30  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  52  39  68 /  80  50  60   0
GAGE OK           36  59  33  66 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     40  54  37  65 /  60  40  20   0
DURANT OK         55  58  43  65 / 100  90  90  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

02/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
215 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS... TO ELK CITY...
TO FAIRVIEW... TO MEDFORD.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE HAIL TO NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 70 MPH... ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND FLASH FLOODING... WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD REMAIN READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... REMAIN PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT... FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... WITH AN ATTENDANT
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOES.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY... THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
HAVE DIMINISHED. LATER IN THE WEEK... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING ON MAINSTEM RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ017-172015-
BLAINE OK-
301 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENFIELD AT
301 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             1 S HINTON              35.46N 98.36W
03/17/2008  E0.88 INCH       CADDO              OK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            RED ROCK CANYON STATE PARK

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ023-038-172200-
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-
433 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE
REFUGE AT 433 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

OKZ023-180015-
CADDO OK-
638 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF STECKER AT 638
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>