Severe Thunderstorm Warning 834, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO
WATONGA... TO SAYRE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HAIL UP TO
AN INCH IN DIAMETER ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT MIDDAY WILL
BECOME EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EAST OF
THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY. RESULTANT WARMING AT LOW LEVELS... COMBINED WITH
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM... WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. LATER THIS
EVENING... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT... REACHING NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVING QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM PRECEDING THE STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT... MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
FARTHER WEST... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM
INTO A LINE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT... REACHING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT... AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM AND WITH THE COLD FRONT... WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY OCT 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EXCEED 30
MPH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY... MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON... AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
MORNING... BEFORE DECREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE POSSIBLE.

FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST COULD OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS A LARGER PART OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LIGHT FREEZE COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN SOME
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

24/06/30/02