Severe Thunderstorm Warning 729, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

STRONG/SVR TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EVE CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD NW OK. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS
OF HIGHER INSTAB EXTENDING FROM WESTERN N TX INTO NW OK AND EXPECT
STORMS TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE INTO THAT AREA. THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH CURRENT FCST BUT WILL ADJUST POPS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.

II

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MCS/S DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. APPEARS BETTER SETUP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) WITH BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

STORMS/RAIN MAY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH
MAYBE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL APPEARS
THAT UPPER FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  69  91 /  40  30  50  40
HOBART OK         68  92  70  90 /  70  30  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  92  71  92 /  50  30  40  40
GAGE OK           66  88  64  89 /  80  30  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  88  68  88 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         70  89  70  88 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
850 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOCATION...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND OVER
OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST OF A SEMINOLE TO MARIETTA LINE.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND
GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
IF STORM COMPLEXES DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY ALSO CAUSE MAINSTEM
FLOODING OF SOME RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
FLOODING RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AT
NIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ALREADY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM FLOODING OF
SOME AREA RIVERS THIS WEEK.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM THURSDAY.

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