Severe Thunderstorm Warning 686, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A STORM COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST... LIKELY AFFECTING MANY OF
OUR EASTERN-EDGE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA... ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
CHEYENNE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ARDMORE. FINALLY... YET ANOTHER GROUP OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW... REACHING OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH ALL THE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY THE LATTER GROUP... HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE CENTERED ON A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO ADA...
WHICH COINCIDES WITH SOME OF THE LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. SO... WE WILL INCLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONGOING WEATHER HAS LEFT LITTLE TIME FOR LOOKING AHEAD. BASED ON A
QUICK PERUSAL OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN... IT APPEARS THAT
NIGHTTIME NORTHWEST-FLOW CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS... WITH REMNANTS LEFT OVER IN THE MORNINGS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND... RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND... BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CHANCES OF RAIN ARE INTRODUCED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES... SO THE FORECAST PAST TONIGHT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  82  66  89 /  70  40  30  10
HOBART OK         71  89  68  92 /  60  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  91  71  93 /  30  20  30  10
GAGE OK           63  81  65  91 /  50  20  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     64  77  62  85 /  50  30  30  10
DURANT OK         73  86  68  88 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ011>013-015>019-022>025-027>029-035-
     038>040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ031-032-042-043-047-048.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ020-026-030-041.

TX...NONE.
&&

11/23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
158 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

OKZ012-013-020-161945-
GARFIELD OK-NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-
158 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...NOBLE AND PAYNE
COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOONER LAKE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BRECKENRIDGE AT 158 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 42 MPH. OCCASIONAL
HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL... AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

OKZ013-018>020-026-162015-
LINCOLN OK-LOGAN OK-KINGFISHER OK-NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-
241 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KINGFISHER...LINCOLN...
LOGAN...NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM QUAY TO 3 MILES NORTH
OF LOVELL AT 241 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 36 MPH. STRONG WINDS UP TO
50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  THE STRONG WINDS WILL
EXTEND AHEAD OF THE STORMS BY 10 TO 20 MILES.  HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN KINGFISHER...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GUTHRIE AND STILLWATER...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

OKZ019-025-026-030-031-162045-
LINCOLN OK-LOGAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-SEMINOLE OK-
314 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LINCOLN...LOGAN...
OKLAHOMA...POTTAWATOMIE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES EAST OF AVERY
TO 9 MILES NORTH OF LUTHER AT 314 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 59
MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR AS MUCH AS 10 MILES IN ADVANCE OF THE
STORMS.  IN ADDITION TO THE WIND... VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN LINCOLN...LOGAN...OKLAHOMA...POTTAWATOMIE AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY AND OKLAHOMA
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             6 SE CUSTER CITY        35.60N 98.81W
06/16/2008  E1.75 INCH       CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JB/FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

OKZ030>032-042-162145-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-SEMINOLE OK-HUGHES OK-PONTOTOC OK-
412 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HUGHES...PONTOTOC...
POTTAWATOMIE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM CROMWELL TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BETHEL ACRES AT 412 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 39 MPH.
STRONG NORTH WINDS... GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AT TIMES...
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS... A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN HUGHES...PONTOTOC...POTTAWATOMIE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF SHAWNEE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CMS