Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
324 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DIVERSE AND COMPLICATED FORECAST...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PROSPECTS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOWS ALONG WITH THE WIND...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND REPLACE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORIES. THESE ADVISORIES WILL BE TIME-STEPPED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

AS FAR AS SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST NEAR TRIPLE-
POINT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO HIGH WIND
AS ANTICIPATED SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION AND
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE ALONG FRONT NEAR RED RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...PERSISTENT TRAINING EFFECTS WILL KEEP
US WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT WATCH WILL CONTINUE AND DID NOT EXPAND IT.

AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS GO...TRACK OF SURFACE THROUGH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS DO FAVOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. NAM MODEL MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AN OUTLIER AS
FAR AS PRODUCING 6+INCHES OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GFS A
LITTLE LESS AND FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS WELL WITH
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO AND CLOSE TO HPC WWD GRAPHICS. AS UPPER LOW
PULLS OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING...WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A MESOSCALE BAND SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF I-44 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...PRODUCING 4 TO 6 INCHES. WILL NOT GET FANCY AND TRY TO
PINPOINT AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP TOTAL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 4
INCHES AND SATISFY ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND THE PERIODIC SNOW...SOME VISIBILITIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO LONGER PERIODS...WITH FRONTS EXPECTED
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. FORCING MINIMAL OR ABSENT WITH
THESE FRONTS AND MOISTURE FAIRLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  37  26  50 / 100  60  30   0
HOBART OK         33  39  25  56 /  80  60  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  41  29  59 /  80  70  40   0
GAGE OK           29  40  21  57 /  60  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  37  24  49 / 100  40  10   0
DURANT OK         42  42  29  51 / 100  80  60   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ018>020-022>030-033>038.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
     CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>017-021.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ032-040>043-045>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ033-036.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ039-044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ043-047-048-051-052.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ031.

TX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ083>085.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ086>089.

&&

30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
622 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND LOCATIONS IN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALTUS...TO CLINTON...TO ENID.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE REGION AND USHERS IN MUCH COOLER AND STABLE
AIR.

IMPACTS...
SEVERE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 75 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THROUGH MID-EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF ALTUS...NORTHEAST
THROUGH ENID EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF AND NEAR
THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND WITH THOSE STORMS...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE STORMS ORGANIZED
INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND COMBINE WITH THE SURGING COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY MAR 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE 3 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE.

VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THESE HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY POSSIBLY RECEIVING AN INCH OR
TWO. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE-44. ALONG WITH THE SNOW...STRONG
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

30/11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
723 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWKIRK                 36.88N 97.06W
03/02/2008  E60 MPH          KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
737 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ048-052-030200-
BRYAN OK-ATOKA OK-
737 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
BENNINGTON TO ALBANY AT 737 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

TXZ086-089-030200-
WICHITA TX-ARCHER TX-
738 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE DIVERSION AND 8
MILES SOUTH OF HOLLIDAY AT 738 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ARCHER AND WICHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
BURKBURNETT AND WICHITA FALLS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             MABELLE                 33.67N 99.13W
03/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       BAYLOR             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

FM

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