River Flood Warning 8, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA... AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WARM FRONT HAD MOVED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... HOWEVER MORE RECENT MESONET DATA SHOWS THAT
IT IS MOVING SOUTH AGAIN AND EXTENDS FROM ATOKA COUNTY TO LOVE
COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY START LIFTING NORTH
AGAIN AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND THE SURFACE
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD OKLAHOMA. THE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED REGARDLESS... BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT MOVES AND ALLOW THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO SPREAD NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE
PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT MINS. REST OF THE PACKAGE IS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE...  OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL CONT TO PUSH E/NE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR SW THIS AFTN WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THIS EVENING PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OK AND N TX WILL BE IN
WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL RAISE SUPERCELL/TORNADO CONCERN ACROSS THIS
AREA. HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OK TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.

SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY NE THU MORNING WITH DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. BEHIND DRYLINE STRONG W/SW SFC WINDS DEVELOP WHICH MAY LEAD TO
WIND ADVISORY NEEDING TO BE ISSUED. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THU AFTN. WILL HOLD OFF ON THESE HEADLINE FOR NOW.

COOLER DRIER WX EXPECTED FRI INTO WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING TREND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DID GO WITH HPC QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AS SEEM TO REPRESENT
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL BETTER THAN GRIDDED MOS GUID.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  68  41  64 /  80  20  20  10
HOBART OK         47  68  41  60 /  80  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  76  44  70 /  90  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  63  34  57 /  70  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     50  64  37  59 /  80  40  20  10
DURANT OK         64  75  49  69 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
930 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE...TO
CHICKASHA ...TO LAWTON...TO VERNON...TO KNOX CITY. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN ON CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES. BE SURE YOUR WEATHER RADIO IS SET AND READY TO ALERT FOR
WARNINGS IN YOUR AREA.

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER FEATURES CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WAS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM...THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE RESULTING UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE. IF IT MAKES IT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES...THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FLOODING RAINS ARE ALSO
LIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THESE AREAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THURSDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
QUICKLY EAST. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS ARE A FEW TORNADOES IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE NOON.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SOME FLOODING MAY BE
ONGOING FROM THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

SMITH

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