River Flood Warning 27, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS STORMS... SEVERAL OF WHICH ARE SEVERE... ARE OCCURRING
YET AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS HAVE THE EXISTING
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A SINGLE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. WE DID AN UPDATE EARLIER THAT
REFLECTS THIS GENERAL IDEA. ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE LIKELY AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SURFACE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS
AND DRYLINE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTN HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK LATE
THIS AFTN. LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS HAS BEEN THE AREA THAT HAS
RECEIVED SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS POINT.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTN/EVENING. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMER WX RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...
BUT APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME... BEFORE GFS BUILDS LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  88  60  78 /  60  30  60  10
HOBART OK         71  87  60  78 /  60  30  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  92  67  84 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           62  78  52  77 /  70  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  78  56  73 /  80  40  40  10
DURANT OK         72  95  70  83 /  20  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-010.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
825 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE ENTIRE NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN TO MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE A CONTINUED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH LATE EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS ARE LIKELY TO MERGE INTO A
MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT... THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS... AS THE COMPLEX MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN... CENTRAL... AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. IF THE LOW LEVELS RECOVER FROM
THE EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS... THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH
CENTRAL... CENTRAL... AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS APPEAR LESS LIKELY ON TUESDAY... BUT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST... WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM TUESDAY.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ020-270545-
PAYNE OK-
1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR PAYNE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER INGALLS AT 1217 AM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             3 E COLONY              35.35N 98.62W
05/26/2008  E2.50 INCH       WASHITA            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ018-019-024-025-270615-
LOGAN OK-KINGFISHER OK-CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHEAST
CANADIAN...SOUTHEAST KINGFISHER...SOUTHWEST LOGAN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF PIEDMONT AT 1240 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

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