Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
312 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL BE FOCUS FOR YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS A SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT.

COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH
WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN ON THURSDAY. QUITER PERIOD OF
WEATHER EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF WEEK INTO WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH VERY
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. ANOTHER WEAKER SFC FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT SHOULD GO
THROUGH DRY. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WARM AND
PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  82  69  90 /  60  10  10  10
HOBART OK         64  84  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  89  72  93 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           51  78  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  76  67  89 /  40  10  10  10
DURANT OK         69  87  71  89 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1158 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT... TO
WATONGA... TO DUNCAN AND WAURIKA OKLAHOMA. THIS ALSO INCLUDES ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 2 PM INTO
TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS... STRONG WINDS TO 65 MPH... AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN ON SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE MORNING STORMS HAVE ALSO GENERATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON... IT
COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DESPITE RATHER
MODEST WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER... ISOLATED TORNADOES
COULD STILL BE A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IF THE
REMNANTS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT CAN FAVORABLY
MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE AREA AND THE INSTABILITIES REACH
VERY HIGH VALUES.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN
MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CONTINUING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ015-272100-
DEWEY OK-
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CAMARGO AT 344 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 13 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN DEWEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ083-084-272115-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
352 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
MEDICINE MOUND TO 16 MILES WEST OF CROWELL AT 352 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
QUANAH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             9 S HAMMON              35.50N 99.38W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0408 PM     HAIL             MARTHA                  34.73N 99.39W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0414 PM     HAIL             DUKE                    34.67N 99.58W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             2 E DUKE                34.67N 99.54W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   STORM CHASER

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ083>085-087-272145-
HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD...HARDEMAN...KNOX AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
QUANAH TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROWELL AT 419 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 11 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN FOARD...HARDEMAN...KNOX AND WILBARGER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF QUANAH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             3 W CANUTE              35.43N 99.33W
05/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       WASHITA            OK   PUBLIC

0425 PM     HAIL             3 WSW CANUTE            35.41N 99.33W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       WASHITA            OK   PUBLIC

&&

TY/DW