Flood Watch 9, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1242 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDING NE INTO QUEBEC THIS MORNING. MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS N INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES RIDING
UP ALONG IT AND SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION...PUSHING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SETUP...ACCENTUATED BY 55-60 KT
LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE(1.5 PWATS)INTO THE REGION.

BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
PROVIDING MAIN LIFT FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM W TO E TODAY. HEAVIEST QPF AXIS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NW ZONES WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF MOIST LLJ.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...BUT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY. STRONGEST WINDS ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTICS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE THROUGH THE REGION NW TO SE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AS MEAN TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE AXIS SE OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NW TO
SE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WITH MEAN
LAYER FLOW ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT
WILL PUSH SE OF ENTIRE AREA BY THURS MORNING...BUT WITH OVERRUNNING
WILL STILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
CHANCE NW.

ONE IMPORTANT INGREDIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOW-LEVEL CAA TONIGHT INTO THURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS QUEBEC AND WINDS TURN TO THE N. THIS SHOULD HAVE TEMPS
SLOWLY DROPPING TOWARDS FREEZING ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS COLD AIR DRAINS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

WITH THIS SAID MAY HAVE SCT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS IN
ORANGE...PUTNAM...AND PASSAIC COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT THOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY...BUT TEMP
AND PRECIP TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND SHEARING NE TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THURS NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
NE...WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...FROM THE GULF COAST THURS MORNING
TO MID ATLANTIC COAST THURS EVE...AND THEN NEAR LI FRI MORNING.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ THURS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THURS NIGHT
NE/E OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUMP GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENIC FORCING AND RIGHT
REAR QUAD UPPER JET DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SE TO NW THURS AFTERNOON
INTO THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP TAPER OFF FRI MORNING
FROM SW TO NE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOMEWHERE OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE AREA AND THEN INTO GULF OF MAINE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

WITH GULF MOISTURE...1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES OF QPF EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM THURS AFTERNOON THRU THURS NIGHT..TAPERING OFF FRI
MORNING. EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE AND SETUP OF COASTAL FRONT
WILL DETERMINE PLACEMENT OF BEST MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND THEREFORE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PINPOINT.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...VERTICAL PROFILE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM THURS AFTERNOON AT THE START FOR ANYTHING BUT
LIQUID PRECIP. ONLY EXTREME WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR A WINTRY MIX.

THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL DRAIN DOWN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AT LOW-LEVELS FOR FZRA BY LATE THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS WELL...BUT BASED ON THE
SETUP...AND EVENTUAL EXISTENCE OF A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT...WOULD
THINK TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
ORANGE COUNTY AND THEN LIKELY FURTHER DOWN THE CHAIN INTO
PUTNAM...N WESTCHESTER...N ROCKLAND...AND PERHAPS W. PASSAIC COUNTIES.
IT IS POSSIBLE FREEZING AIR COULD WORK FURTHER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THAT.

WITH THIS COULD SAID COULD BE LOOKING AT AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ICE AND SLEET IN ORANGE COUNTY...WITH BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH OF
ICE AND SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTHER MENTIONED ZONES. SINCE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND COASTAL FRONT...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WATCH. WILL LEAVE IT
UP FOR ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD ICING...BUT ADVISORY LEVELS MAY BE
REACHED IN THE MENTIONED ZONES.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF FRI MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
END AS SNOW FAR NW...AND PERHAPS WINTRY MIX ACROSS REST OF
INTERIOR.

THEN DRYING CONDS AND MODERATE CAA ON GUSTY NW FLOW FRI IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM.

TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE IN THE LONG TERM SINCE THE GFS
HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
IS NOW TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE FASTER ECMWF WITH THE LOW RIDING UP
THE COAST ON THU. THIS MAKES FOR A BETTER TRANSITION INTO FRI NIGHT
AS STORM SHOULD BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY THIS TIME WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...POSSIBLY LEADING TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WARMING TEMPS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT CURRENTLY
LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO FALL ENTIRELY AS LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVALENT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT. WIND
SHEAR IMPROVES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN
TO THE SW WITH THE FRONT...THEN SETTLE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN MOVES BACK IN...AND IFR LIKELY.
KSWF SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FZRA. GUSTY NE WINDS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. SUB
VFR WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  TODAY.
AN INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT GUSTS...BUT APPEARS GRADIENT WINDS
THEMSELVES WILL BE CLOSE TO GALE ON THE OCEAN. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER OVER HARBOR/BAYS AND SOUND...SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN LOW END GALE GUSTS.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 13 FT RANGE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SWELL PERIOD AS HIGH SURF
PROBLEMS MAY ARISE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...THEN NORTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WINDS MAY BUILD BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS THURS INTO THURS NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG COLD FRONT AND WORKS TOWARDS THE WATERS. ANY
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WATERS ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THEN
QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT TODAY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRI
MORNING. NO FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 18 HRS PERIOD THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED. A PORTION OR MUCH OF THE RAIN COULD BE IN THE FROZEN
FORM ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY SURROUNDING COUNTIES.
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES TODAY. WE NEED
AROUND 1.5 FT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...NGM GUIDANCE
IS HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
NO HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS HAVE COME UP A
BIT THIS MORNING...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TO POSE ANY PROBLEMS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON DEPARTURES FOR THURSDAY MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TODAY...AROUND 1.2. WATER LEVEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ005.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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