Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
402 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF
NYC/SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY/MUCH OF NORTHEAST NJ AND NASSAU
COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA...WITH
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. THESE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL
NY.

WITH STORMS MOVING INTO AREAS FAVORING CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 1250 ALONG WITH A LIFTED INDEX -5 AND PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5. FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 11000 FT...SO
WILL LOOK FOR STORMS TO CONTAIN HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE PRECIP MAXIMUMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ONLY THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
AREA. NAM KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...AS LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
STORMS. WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA AND ALL MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES ON FRI AS UPPER TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
MORNING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT THE SFC OVER SOUTHERN NJ.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY WITH STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISM...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2...AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11000
FT WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION IN ANY STORMS.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE...WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE SAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SAT UNTIL UPPER TROUGH CLEARS
THE REGION.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...BRINGING DRY WX
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AND AS A RESULT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS THE FEATURE
DRIVING THE WX INTO SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TOPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 25K) AND ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTMS DO TO LACK OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT. THUS VCSH USED IN TAFS AND CB ADDED TO THE CLOUD TO INDICATE
A CHC FOR A TSTM.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...OF COURSE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN QUITE LIGHT. I EXPECT WINDS EVERYWHERE TO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS...AND IN MANY CASES...UNDER 5 KTS. WEAK SFC
TROUGH SHOULD SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG A GOOD BET...MAINLY OUTSIDE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN EITHER SHOWERS OR FOG.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL POSE ANOTHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BEGINNING
FRI...CLEARING EASTERN ZONES LATE SAT. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN...AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH BASIN AVG QPF EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON FRI WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 3/4 INCH
TO 1 INCH OF QPF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 4+. UNFORTUNATELY...IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.

CONVECTION COULD EASILY EXCEED URBAN FLASH TRIGGERS OF 1.25/HR
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY...AND THIS IS A HARBINGER OF
THINGS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYC AND SURROUNDING URBANIZED AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ071>077.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NJZ003>006-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
257 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

CTZ006-007-141945-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
257 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES...

AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BERLIN TO
CHESHIRE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRITAIN TO MERIDEN...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR MERIDEN BY 305 PM.
  NEAR CROMWELL BY 315 PM.
  NEAR MIDDLETOWN BY 320 PM.
  NEAR DURHAM BY 335 PM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

MALOIT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
319 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

NYZ070-142015-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
319 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL NORTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HUDSON RIVER NEAR PEEKSKILL MOVING EAST
AT 17 MPH.

THIS STORM HAD PRODUCED PENNY SIZE HAIL OVER ORANGE COUNTY
EARLIER...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED SOME SINCE.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTY INCLUDING CROTON ON
HUDSON AND MOUNT KISCO CAN EXPECT THIS STORM BEFORE 4 PM.

LIGHTNING CAN BE DEADLY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

JST