Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SERN NE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS LIKELY THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. UPPER AIR CHARTS THIS MORNING SHOWED FAIRLY DECENT LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM TX NWD/NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE GENERALLY 100-150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...SO IN ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...SOME WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE OR BECOME SOMEWHAT
OUTFLOW DOMINANT...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. STORM CHANCES SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...BUT LINGER IN THE SOUTH. WENT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 85 TO 90.

FETCH OF MOISTURE WHICH IS IN PLACE FROM THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE BY MID WEEK. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT DRY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. CHANCES SEEM BETTER BY THE
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WILL BE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
OVER OUR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LEFT MONDAY DRY
FOR NOW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS. LOWS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL AGAIN BRING CHANCE FOR
TSRA/SHRA AS WELL AS WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT.  GREATER
CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE AT KOMA/KLNK BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH A LESSER CHC
AT KOFK.  FOR NOW...UNTIL TIMING/COVERAGE OF STORMS IS MORE
APPARENT...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA/CB MENTION.  FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM KOFK THIS EVNG...THEN KOMA/KLNK OVERNIGHT...WITH LT/VARIABLE
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.  INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
MVFR VIS AT KOMA/KLNK TOWARD MRNG WITH LT WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ065-066-068-078-
     088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-080645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1139 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN
SOME STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.  AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WILL HELP TRIGGER THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY
LIKELY IN A LINE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO PENDER. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH A LINE OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR
A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINE. ANY OF THESE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...AND
COULD SPIN UP A BRIEF TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAYES

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