Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS TODAY AND RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE TSTMS...SOME SEVERE. STORMS COULD START BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS AND LAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING.
300 MB CHART FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED A JET SEGMENT WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 100 KTS FROM NERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A SECOND AND
IMPORTANT SEGMENT WAS ALSO NOTED FROM NRN UTAH INTO COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED FAST FLOW IN PLACE FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER NWRN MEXICO/SWRN U.S. AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SWRN PART OF HUDSON BAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NRN MINNESOTA INTO NWRN IOWA...NERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO NERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SWRN IOWA...
SERN NEBRASKA...NERN KANSAS AND NWRN MISSOURI BY 18Z WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF FIRST JET SEGMENT AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SECOND JET SEGMENT POSSIBLY COUPLING TO ENHANCE MID TROPOSPHERIC
LIFT. EXPECT THAT SEVERE STORMS COULD GET GOING MUCH EARLIER THAN
WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO DECENT FORCING. LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AT AND BELOW 700 MB) IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TODAY...COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. DEWPOINTS
AT 850 MB COULD REACH AROUND 16C OVER SERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 7 C AT 700 MB (WHICH WAS THE VALUE
AT 700 MB AT DODGE CITY LAST EVENING). THIS WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES VALUES TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER OUR SRN ZONES BY MID DAY
AND TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BETWEEN FALLS CITY AND KANSAS CITY BY 21Z.
SO IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT WENT WITH MAINLY
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FAR SRN ZONES COULD REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CONVECTION...IF CLOUDS
ARE NOT TOO THICK.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN TOWARD MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA MAINLY DRY. 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE ERN ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY. 00Z NAM WAS
PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH QPF...BUT FELT NEEDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS WRN ZONES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT WEDNESDAY
DRY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK
DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PCPN...SO THE
CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE KEPT OR INCREASED A SMALL
AMOUNT.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY 55
TO 65 AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z ALL SITES...THEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AT KOMA AND KLNK MAINLY 12Z-18Z AS MODELS BRING
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID
LEVEL WAVE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KOMA AND KLNK
AFTER 18Z AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA. MODEL
TIMING WILL BE MAIN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT

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