Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS TODAY AND RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE TSTMS...SOME SEVERE. STORMS COULD START BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS AND LAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING.
300 MB CHART FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED A JET SEGMENT WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 100 KTS FROM NERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A SECOND AND
IMPORTANT SEGMENT WAS ALSO NOTED FROM NRN UTAH INTO COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED FAST FLOW IN PLACE FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER NWRN MEXICO/SWRN U.S. AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SWRN PART OF HUDSON BAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NRN MINNESOTA INTO NWRN IOWA...NERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO NERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SWRN IOWA...
SERN NEBRASKA...NERN KANSAS AND NWRN MISSOURI BY 18Z WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF FIRST JET SEGMENT AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SECOND JET SEGMENT POSSIBLY COUPLING TO ENHANCE MID TROPOSPHERIC
LIFT. EXPECT THAT SEVERE STORMS COULD GET GOING MUCH EARLIER THAN
WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO DECENT FORCING. LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AT AND BELOW 700 MB) IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TODAY...COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. DEWPOINTS
AT 850 MB COULD REACH AROUND 16C OVER SERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 7 C AT 700 MB (WHICH WAS THE VALUE
AT 700 MB AT DODGE CITY LAST EVENING). THIS WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES VALUES TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER OUR SRN ZONES BY MID DAY
AND TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BETWEEN FALLS CITY AND KANSAS CITY BY 21Z.
SO IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT WENT WITH MAINLY
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FAR SRN ZONES COULD REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CONVECTION...IF CLOUDS
ARE NOT TOO THICK.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN TOWARD MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA MAINLY DRY. 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE ERN ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY. 00Z NAM WAS
PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH QPF...BUT FELT NEEDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS WRN ZONES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT WEDNESDAY
DRY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK
DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PCPN...SO THE
CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE KEPT OR INCREASED A SMALL
AMOUNT.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY 55
TO 65 AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z ALL SITES...THEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AT KOMA AND KLNK MAINLY 12Z-18Z AS MODELS BRING
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID
LEVEL WAVE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KOMA AND KLNK
AFTER 18Z AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA. MODEL
TIMING WILL BE MAIN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093-152300-
BURT-BUTLER-CASS-COLFAX-DODGE-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-
OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-
SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-WASHINGTON-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI AND KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IF TIME ALLOWS...A CONFERENCE CALL MAY BE CONDUCTED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MID TO LATE MORNING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM SOUTH OF
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY...BROWNVILLE AND RULO. FLOODING IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER BASIN NEAR
HAMBURG. ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS WERE FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN TODAY TO PRODUCE A MINOR
RISE TO A SECONDARY CREST...MAINLY ON THE MISSOURI RIVER BELOW
NEBRASKA CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SEVERE STORMS DO NOT SEEM
LIKELY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING OR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL...
WIND DAMAGE...OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.

NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-152300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-CEDAR-CUMING-KNOX-MADISON-PIERCE-STANTON-THURSTON-
WAYNE-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SEVERE STORMS DO NOT SEEM
LIKELY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ALWAYS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.

MILLER

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