Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST
EAST OF KMCK AT 18Z WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA. INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AND MOVED NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG SEMI-DRY LINE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH. HIGH POPS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT WITH
HEADLINES FOR SEVERE OR FLOOD POTENTIAL. STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
HIGH POSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH FAST MOVEMENT NORTH. MAIN ACTION EXPECTED TO END AFTER 06Z AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY FROM WEATHER
BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

EXTENDED FORECAST LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE TODAY WITH TREND TOWARD
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK THRU 06/1800Z.

MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z AT EACH TAF SITE
AS UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
A WESTERLY DIRECATION AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

FOBERT/DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
410 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL
BE MOVING VERY FAST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 60 MPH.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
EXTREME SHEAR VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UNUSALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL HAVE A FAST
STORM MOVEMENT...BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING FLOODING AND SATURATED
SOILS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO INDIVIDUAL RIVER AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
SPECIFIC FLOODING DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     HAIL             1 SE COLERIDGE          42.50N 97.19W
06/05/2008  M1.75 INCH       CEDAR              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JKURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
109 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 PM     HAIL             2 NNW HADAR             42.13N 97.47W
06/05/2008  M1.50 INCH       PIERCE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
302 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             3 E MALMO               41.27N 96.66W
06/04/2008  E0.88 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DFOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
600 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 S LIBERTY             40.07N 96.48W
06/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       GAGE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
638 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TORNADO          1 S JOHNSON             40.40N 96.00W
06/05/2008                   NEMAHA             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 136 AND 105

&&

KURTZ