Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PESKY TROF CONTINUES IT/S PROGRESSION INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND FINALLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT SEVERAL REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FELL...ONE
BAND FRON BUTLER TO SAUNDERS COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN FM SALINE ACRS LANCASTER EWD TO CAST/OTOE/MILLS AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...WITH A SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE SFC FNT NR THE KS/NE BORDER...EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING. EXTENDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE THETA
E- RIDGE AXIS SET UP OVER ERN NEB AND MOVES INTO WRN IA THRU 06Z.
LATEST TRENDS DO TRY TO BRING THE DRY SLOT IN AND THE STORM
MOTIONS INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 KTS...SO THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
STORMS MOVING.

THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON TO 40 TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND 50 TO 60KTS BY 03Z...COMBINED
WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FM WRN KS TO CNTRL NEB. DID ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST
OVR THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND THIS SHEAR MAXIMUM
SHIFTS TO ERN NEB AND WRN IA BY 00Z AND INTO IA THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE OF 1-2K J/KG ARE PROGGED TO DOUBLE TO 2-4K J/KG BY 00Z.
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST OVR SE NEB
TAF...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING ACRS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WRM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVANCE ACRS THE CWA AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THE SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND UPPR LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE LEFT FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT WITH UPR LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHC FOR TSRA. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA CONTINUE TSRA CHCS INTO SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

ZAPOTOCNY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1102 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N WEEPING WATER       40.93N 96.14W
06/05/2008  E4.26 INCH       CASS               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1137 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             OAKDALE                 42.07N 97.97W
06/05/2008  M0.75 INCH       ANTELOPE           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1152 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             PIERCE                  42.20N 97.53W
06/05/2008  M0.88 INCH       PIERCE             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1156 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     HAIL             PIERCE                  42.20N 97.53W
06/05/2008  M0.88 INCH       PIERCE             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DERGAN