Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG CONVECTION
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. COLD WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT
TERM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT. CORE OF UPPER JET
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SAT DRYING OUT THE LAYER FAIRLY WELL.
BREEZY WSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS READINGS IN THE 50S. A
SPOKE OF CAA MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS
IN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 6000 FT WHICH WILL TRAP
STRATO-CU DECK. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP SOME SAT NGT. YET ANOTHER
SPOKE OF CAA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. FREEZING LEVEL
DROPS DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FT. BY SUNDAY EVENING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL
BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THANKS MAINLY TO CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY BRINGING COLD AIR WITH IT.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS
ALSO INDICATED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY....THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS INDICATED.
THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO MORNING MORNING.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  LOW SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MODELS
INDICATING A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.  WITH
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.  STAYED NEAR MEX/HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  55  66  40  53  35 /  80  10  10  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  65  37  50  33 /  80  10  20  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN  52  64  36  49  35 /  80  10  30  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  55  65  37  49  31 /  90  20  30  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SON/GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
459 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-120900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
459 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008 /359 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...AND HAIL OF PENNY SIZE OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COLDER AIR AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-120330-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
318 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008 /218 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008/

...STORMY WEATHER THIS EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...

A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME
FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY. IN FACT...
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO AROUND FREEZING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TV OR
RADIO STATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS.

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