Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG CONVECTION
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. COLD WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT
TERM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT. CORE OF UPPER JET
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SAT DRYING OUT THE LAYER FAIRLY WELL.
BREEZY WSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS READINGS IN THE 50S. A
SPOKE OF CAA MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS
IN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 6000 FT WHICH WILL TRAP
STRATO-CU DECK. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP SOME SAT NGT. YET ANOTHER
SPOKE OF CAA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. FREEZING LEVEL
DROPS DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FT. BY SUNDAY EVENING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL
BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THANKS MAINLY TO CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY BRINGING COLD AIR WITH IT.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS
ALSO INDICATED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY....THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS INDICATED.
THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO MORNING MORNING.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  LOW SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MODELS
INDICATING A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.  WITH
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.  STAYED NEAR MEX/HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  55  66  40  53  35 /  80  10  10  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  65  37  50  33 /  80  10  20  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN  52  64  36  49  35 /  80  10  30  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  55  65  37  49  31 /  90  20  30  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SON/GH

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